Pendulum of war

IN the past couple of weeks, Al Qaeda and its franchises have come back with a vengeance, attacking Pakistan, its security forces and the public. This also appears to be a prelude to an increase in violence in Afghanistan in the near future.

An important aspect of these new series of attacks is their concentration on Islamabad, Peshawar and locations along the Durand Line. In their latest onslaughts on urban centres, militants have used both improvised explosive devices and suicide bombers. Clearly, the militants are in good health and pose a serious existential threat to Pakistan.

The new attacks are significant in that they convey a message to Pakistan and the combined forces of more than 43 nations deployed in Afghanistan, that the recent loss of Osama bin Laden and one of Al Qaeda`s foremost commanders, Ilyas Kashmiri, have not stripped it of its fighting abilities. The attacks also reflect the resilience and institutional capacity of the second tier of the insurgent team which is proving itself adept at meeting new challenges.Another factor that has added significance to the recent militant activity is the capacity of Al Qaeda and its various branches in Pakistan and Afghanistan to carry out multiple border incursions, as seen in Dir, Kurram and South Waziristan, within a short span of time.

Add these capacities to the assumed presence of militant cells within the Pakistani security services and serious questions are raised about whether the strategy followed so far in dealing with the militants is actually effective. The militants` ability to field insurgent groups of up to 300 men, as seen in the two recent attacks on Dir in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, is worrying.

According to local officials, a Taliban force of more than 200 fighters who were armed with light and heavy weapons and some of whom wore military uniforms attacked a police station in Shaldalo village of Upper Dir on June 1. The incursion was resisted by the Pakistani police and paramilitary forces and the engagement lasted several hours. Pakistani helicopter gunships took part in forcing back the militants – 23 security personnel were killed and the Taliban are said to have suffered casualties, but no dead bodies were recovered.

The Taliban had earlier launched a similar attack on April 22, when more than 400 fighters attacked a police post in Kharakhai in Lower Dir district. They overran the outpost while killing 16 Pakistani police personnel. Both attacks originated from across the border in the Afghan province of Kunar, where the Taliban and Al Qaeda have established safe havens after the US forces made a questionable withdrawal from Kunar and Nuristan in March 2010, creating a security hazard for Pakistani forces.

The Taliban have learnt that if they are relentless in their resistance, the US does withdraw. In leaving Kunar and more specifically the strategic Korengal valley, the US followed the path taken by the erstwhile USSR when it too withdrew from this part after the Mujahideen attacks became deadly. This was heralded as the beginning of the end of Soviet presence in Afghanistan. Does the loss of control over Kunar and Nuristan also herald a similar retreat by the US from Afghanistan?

“The withdrawal is a great victory for us,” said Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid in April 2010, when the Taliban forces occupied US posts in Korengal and Pech valleys. “The area is very, very important for us. Its mountains provide a good hideout, it can be used as training ground and lead our operations from the region there.” The severity of attacks on Pakistani territory in 2011 has proved him right.

It is not understood why Isaf commander Gen Petraeus told the US Senate Armed Services Committee on March 15 that the Taliban`s momentum had been reversed in most areas of Afghanistan. At best, the situation is fragile and easily reversible. The situation on the ground seems to contradict the general`s hopeful projection.

Gen Petraeus added that America`s “core objective” was to “ensure that Afghanistan does not once again become a sanctuary for Al Qaeda”. Yet the two attacks on Dir clearly show that Al Qaeda has become a formidable presence in this part of the Hindu Kush and that the US has not been able to deny it this sanctuary.

For Pakistan, the policy options are either to conduct hot pursuit into Afghanistan, or to fence the Durand Line to protect itself against attacks. To do nothing is dangerous.

Due to this security threat from Afghanistan, the recent Pakistani gains in Swat, Buner, Dir, Bajaur and Mohmand appear to be tenuous. It is also clear that the insurgents are now deeply embedded within the region.

So, what next?

The following predictions can be safely made: the gains made by the Pakistan military in Swat, Dir and Bajaur will be tested; it is also clear that while the Pakistani military holds sway in the valleys, the mountains mostly belong to the militants. Yet while the Hindu Kush range provides them with advantages, it also limits the type of war that they can wage: they cannot field large groups. However, the mountains give them the ability to easily change their axis of attack more quickly than the military, which is dependent on a long supply chain.

Furthermore, public opinion in Pakistan that is favourable to the militants allows them to receive a steady supply of volunteers. These factors provide them the ability to conduct a war of attrition against Pakistan for a long time to come. They also have the ability to extend insecurity to other parts of the country to lessen the pressure against them.

UN criticism not likely to stop CIA drone strikes

WASHINGTON – The U.S. government’s covert program using unmanned drones to strike at terrorists inside Pakistan is not likely to stop or change, despite new criticism from a U.N. human rights expert.

Policemen stand guard behind barricades on a closed road leading towards the president’s house and the parliament building in Islamabad, during a protest by tribesmen against military operations and drone attacks in the tribal areas January 23, 2009. Credit: Reuters

U.S. officials insist the CIA program has been an effective tool to take out insurgents along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, particularly those hidden beyond the reach of the military. The stepped-up use of drones over the past year has shown no signs of slowing down and was credited earlier this week with the killing inside Pakistan of al-Qaida’s third in command.

The Obama administration does not acknowledge the secret program, but one senior U.S. official defended its use Wednesday, saying a careful and rigorous targeting process is used to avoid civilian casualties. The official, who is familiar with the operation, spoke on condition of anonymity because the program is classified.

The program, which officials say has killed hundreds of insurgents in dozens of strikes over the past year, has been condemned by critics who say it may constitute illegal assassinations and violate international law. They argue that intelligence officers conducting the strikes could be at risk of prosecution for murder in foreign countries.

In a 29-page report released Wednesday, Philip Alston, the independent U.N. investigator on extrajudicial killings, called on countries to lay out rules and safeguards for carrying out the strikes, publish figures on civilian casualties and prove they have attempted to capture or incapacitate suspects without killing them.

“Unlike a state’s armed forces, its intelligence agents do not generally operate within a framework which places appropriate emphasis upon ensuring compliance with international humanitarian law, rendering violations more likely and causing a higher risk of prosecution both for war crimes and for violations of the laws of the state in which any killing occurs,” wrote Alston, a New York University professor.

The report to the U.N. Human Rights Council puts unwanted scrutiny on the intelligence operations of the United States, Israel and Russia, who Alston says are all credibly reported to have used drones to kill alleged terrorists and insurgents.

He said the drone strikes by intelligence agencies launched in Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere are particularly fraught because of the secrecy surrounding them.

Other experts disagree.

“Drone operations are essential,” said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution Saban Center. “The drones are part of a much broader effort to put pressure on al-Qaida through the war in Afghanistan. They’re the cutting edge of the pressure, but they’re not the only pressure.”

Earlier this week, al-Qaida leaders confirmed that a drone strike in Pakistan had killed the terror group’s No. 3 officer and top commander in Afghanistan, Mustafa al-Yazid.

U.S. authorities routinely refuse to talk openly or release data about the program, but as criticism has heightened they have slowly begun to respond quietly to the complaints.

“Without discussing or confirming any specific action or program, this agency’s operations unfold within a framework of law and close government oversight,” said CIA spokesman George Little. “The accountability’s real, and it would be wrong for anyone to suggest otherwise.”

Administration officials have pointed to a carefully worded speech in March by State Department legal adviser Harold Koh, who said that “U.S. targeting practices, including lethal operations conducted with the use of unmanned aerial vehicles, comply with all applicable law, including the laws of war.” The Obama administration, he said, is committed to following the law in its operations against terrorists.

The senior U.S. official said Thursday that the drones use precision targeting, and that civilian casualties have been overstated.

In describing the decision-making process, the official said the strikes are launched only when a vetted target comes into clear view, and that – much like the military – intelligence officers take into account the principles of necessity, the need for a carefully weighed response and the obligation to minimize innocent civilian casualties.

The U.S. official cited Pakistan, where he said there was no evidence to prove large numbers of innocent lives have been lost due to drone strikes.

This view has been challenged by human rights groups and independent observers, who say remotely operated drones risk ingraining a video game mentality about war and can never be as accurate as eyewitness confirmation of targets from the ground.

“The point is that innocent people have been killed, this has been proved over and over again,” said Louise Doswald-Beck, a professor of international law at the Geneva Graduate Institute in Switzerland.

“If you don’t have enough personnel on the ground, the chances of your having false information is actually quite huge,” she told The Associated Press.

Among the most sensitive recommendations in Alston’s report is that governments should disclose “the measures in place to provide prompt, thorough, effective, independent and public investigations of alleged violations of law.” Doing so would almost certainly blow open the lid on all manner of secret counterterror operations.

The report also warns that CIA personnel could be extradited to those countries where the targeted killing takes place and wouldn’t have the same immunity from prosecution as regular soldiers.

Alston claims more than 40 countries now have drone technology, with several seeking to equip them with lethal weapons.

Doswald-Beck said the next step could be the development of fully autonomous drones and battlefield robots programed to identify and kill enemy fighters – but without human controllers to ensure targets are legitimate.

“If that’s the case you’ve got a major problem,” she said.

Taliban still rule half of Orakzai

* Residents say military has cleared only Lower Orakzai while Taliban still control Upper Orakzai
* ISPR says major operations are over, ‘stabilisation’ operations may continue

By Iqbal Khattak

PESHAWAR: Despite the military’s announcement on Tuesday of “successful conclusion of the operation in Orakzai Agency”, locals and officials said on Wednesday that more than half of the agency was yet to be cleared of the Taliban.

“The military has cleared only Lower Orakzai, while the situation in upper and central Orakzai has not changed much, as the army is yet to evict the Taliban from these areas. The battle is far from over,” locals of Lower and Upper Orakzai told Daily Times.

A brief statement issued by the Inter-Services Public Relation (ISPR) on Tuesday said, “(The) COAS’ visit to Orakzai Agency marks the successful conclusion of operations in the agency.”

However, fighting rages on in the agency as more clashes were reported on Wednesday.

“In Upper Orakzai, security forces took control of Daburi, while Mamozai, Ghaljo and Shahoo areas are still in Taliban control,” residents and officials in Hangu district told Daily Times.

Officials said Uzbek and other terrorists belonging to the “Lal Masjid group” and the Taliban from Swat, Bajaur and Waziristan were putting up “stiff resistance” in Upper Orakzai.

However, they said the forces had cleared areas bordering Khyber Agency in northern Orakzai, blocking the Taliban’s attempt to zero in on Peshawar and target supply routes for NATO and American forces in Afghanistan.

“The TTP will not reach Peshawar as effortlessly as it would have prior to the operation. However, the job is yet to be completed in western Orakzai. That is where the real problem lies,” the officials added.

Military spokesman Maj Gen Athar Abbas told Daily Times that the operation in Orakzai was “almost over”, but “stabilisation operations may continue”.

“The consolidation phase has begun and the clearance of population areas will follow soon.”

He said the resistance put up by the Taliban was “quite stiff” and the use of air force was necessary to soften up targets, as it “is hard for ground troops to attack Taliban positions on mountain tops”.

719 killed in Orakzai operation since May 1

LAHORE/HANGU: The total number of people killed in Orakzai since May 1 in action against Taliban is estimated at 719. Of the 719, at least 23 Taliban and one soldier were killed in the operation on Wednesday, security officials said. They told Daily Times that jet fighters and helicopter gunships pounded Taliban hideouts near the Kaasha and Toti Mela areas of Upper Orakzai Agency, killing 13 Taliban. Separately, more than a dozen Taliban attacked an army checkpost in Shahu Khel area in which one soldier was killed, the official said. The security forces retaliated, killing 10 Taliban and injuring eight. The Taliban also torched six houses of the Levies personnel in the agency. A military spokesman in the northwest said there was “complete peace” in the lower reaches of Orakzai, where displaced families had started to return over the past two weeks.