Doing it wrong is what US does right

By Ghalib Sultan
ZoneAsia-Pk 

So the Sisyphean manhunt for the perpetrators of 9/11 continues. After a decade of blood letting the chosen white people, United States of Paranoia still needs Patsies it can announce exorbitant bounties for and in the process air out the world’s worst kept secret: even after more than a decade of fighting the wildly ‘successful’ War on Terror they still don’t know what they are doing.

Hafiz Saeed, head of right wing religious group Jamat ud Dawah whose militant faction Lashkar-e-Taiba was accused of master minding the 26/11 Mumbai Attacks in India; woke up on Tuesday to TV channels abuzz with news of how much money he is worth. Ten million dollars offered by the US to anyone who can deliver Saeed dead or alive to the US authorities. This new declaration of love for everything Pakistan was made by US Undersecretary Wendy Sherman in India on Monday as a show of righteous indignation for why Pakistani authorities have all this time failed to convict Saeed and bring him to justice.

This announcement had an effect that the most imbecile of Pakistanis could have predicted: it turned the wanted man into a media darling, sky rocketing his popularity ratings and turning him into everyone’s favorite playmate of the year. After twelve years either the US is still in denial and believes that Pakistanis will gladly rise to the occasion and call their favorite Uncle Sam to deliver the rogue miscreant to or this announcement of head-money serves a different purpose.

This new development takes place the same month Zardari is supposed to travel to India for the first time after 26/11. The timing is unlikely to be fortuitous but the message left shining on the wall reads: ‘we’re with those guys now’.

If Hafiz Saeed was the bone of contention all along, America should have learned that bounty or no bounty the best way to capture wanted men in Pakistan is via stealth operations only. A man like Hafiz Saeed whose organization is purportedly widely buttressed by the infamous ISI itself and hasn’t been convicted in any court in this country, clearly enjoys high level support. This is something Indian analysts came out to discuss as well, shaking heads over the fact that of course announcing a bounty won’t make aspiring Pakistani assassins don ninja suits to capture a man who lives in Johar Town, Lahore and is seen holding large public rallies to discuss the latest ways of dressing mutton aka India.

Saeed argued that the US hasn’t announced the bounty because six US citizens died in the Mumbai Attacks (let’s face it US soldiers who die in action don’t fetch even close to a million dollars) but because he has been holding mass rallies against reopening the NATO Supply Route. This might sound more plausible given the current ferocity with which DPC and other right wing parties have been making threats about not being afraid to ‘spill blood’ if the routes re-open. Furthermore the opposition and government have both refused to own the decision to reopen those routes ending in a stalemate.

And yet turning up its nose at Pakistan and sidling to India just when Pakistan has found a novel way to assert its national sovereignty isn’t going to help matters for the US. If announcement of bounty on a man who roams freely and is not afraid to sneer at the US and challenge it to take him to court, only foments anti US sentiment, then the US possibly cannot hope to aspire towards a future relationship with Pakistan based on ‘mutual  respect and understanding’.

Rangers, BSF agree to check illegal border crossings

By Asad Kharal

Border forces of Pakistan and India have agreed to stop incidents of illegal crossing, smuggling and unprovoked firing on the working boundary.

Officials of Rangers and Border Security Force exchanging gifts before a meeting at Wagah border on Tuesday.

This decision has been taken in a joint meeting of Pakistan, India border forces held at Wagah on Tuesday. The Indian Border Security Force (BSF) Deputy Inspector General Vasudevan led the 10-member Indian delegation, which was given a warm welcome by the Pakistan Rangers’ delegation headed by Brigadier Wali as they crossed the zero line at Wagah border. Both officers shook hands, exchanged presents and had a group photograph taken. The Rangers also offered guard of honour before start of the meeting.

The quarterly coordination meeting was held at Joint Check Post at the Pakistan side of the Wagah border on Tuesday. The meeting is part of a mutually agreed programme aimed at coordinating measures taken by both forces for border management duties. Brig Wali told media before the session that 24 points would be discussed with BSF including ceasefire violation especially in Sialkot and Shakargarh sectors, smuggling, drug trafficking, casualties of unarmed civilians, border crossing and illegal construction of spur by Indian authorities at river Ravi at Narowal Sector.

Speaking at the occasion, DIG Vasudevan said both the authorities wanted a result oriented discussion. Answering a question he said he had given orders to BSF not to open fire on unarmed civilians who cross the border mistakenly, but also made it clear that it is difficult to judge a civilian crossing the border at night and distinguish whether he’s carrying a gun or a stick.

After the meeting a press release issued by the Rangers stated that dialogue was held in highly congenial atmosphere and there has been sincere endeavour from both forces to encourage junior commanders to mutually resolve minor issues.

At the end of the session the Indian delegation witnessed the flag ceremony and appreciated the parade of the jawans from Pakistan Rangers. The next quarterly meeting will be held at the joint check post Attari, India.

The Numbers Game

By: Ghalib Sultan

An article in the Washington Post discusses Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal (a popular subject!) and makes the startling disclosure that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal has doubled and that its delivery system has improved vastly. Predictably there is no comment or denial from Pakistan because none is needed. Indeed if that is what people want to believe then so be it. Some in Pakistan have swallowed the bait hook, line and sinker and started commenting and criticizing this increase going on in difficult economic times without pausing to consider the veracity of the report by a foreign correspondent.

Pakistan does not publicly discuss its nuclear program disclosing only what is absolutely necessary for reassurance about its command and control and custodial security. A little research can however turn up enough to indicate that Pakistan will not carry out further nuclear tests, that it’s stance on ‘no first use’ is based on clearly stated ‘red lines’ and India’s policies on limited war and cold start operations exploiting conventional force superiority and that Pakistan is for minimum credible deterrence against the threat from India. Pakistan does not have an aggressive use of force strategy involving nuclear weapons. It is no secret that Pakistan and India have ongoing enrichment programs and are engaged in constant improvement of delivery systems. India has gained an enormous advantage with the Indo-US Nuclear agreement that gives it access to fuel while a number of weapon oriented reactors remain outside safeguards. At current rates India is expected to have over 280 nuclear weapons by 2020. Pakistan has suggested a ‘strategic restraint regime’ but India brings in the trilateral factor by stating that it is threatened by China. Pakistan is willing to discuss restraint even in a trilateral context. India is also moving towards SLBM’s and is not a status quo state as far as introduction of new technology and systems is concerned. Isolating Pakistan for doing something that is ongoing in India and other countries is therefore part of a larger Pakistan specific design.

Pakistan is placed in the dock for its opposition to the FMCT (Fissile Material Cut Off Treaty). Pakistan is for a more comprehensive FMT (Fissile Missile Treaty) that takes into account existing stockpiles but because of verification issues India and others oppose this. The Indo-US agreement giving India a vastly improved capacity for increasing stockpiles drives the Pakistani stance on FMCT—a stance that India favored till it got this advantage through the discriminatory agreement from the US. Pakistan’s quest for energy through nuclear reactors from China contracted earlier and therefore outside NSG procedures is being repeatedly opposed by India acting as the ‘front man’ for the US. There is no discussion of the enormous boost to nuclear trade that has resulted as a spin-off from the Indo-US Agreement and the contractual arrangements being made by India with a number of countries. Surprisingly with all asymmetric balance in its favor India is still insecure and feels threatened by Pakistan’s comparatively modest requirements. The terror threat to Pakistani nukes and thence to India and the US is regularly invoked as a mantra especially in the wake of the high profile assassination in Pakistan that is being used by India and by the US to stoke fears of terrorist or extremist inroads into the security apparatus for strategic assets. The US should be aware of the custodial controls in place but India’s motive is to bring into question the civil-military relations in Pakistan by insisting that there should be civilian control-something that will come but at a pace to be determined by Pakistan and not India. The other whip used is the past proliferation episode that is repeatedly floated with new ‘discoveries’-even though it is a dead issue for Pakistan. Pakistan has made it clear that it is supportive of all non-proliferation regimes as long as they are non-discriminatory.

Pakistanis who are deep into military and intelligence bashing because their new found freedom to do so gives them a good macho feel should seriously consider whose interest they are serving. Constructive criticism certainly helps and should go on but doing what others want us to do will be counter- productive. A deeper insight into Pakistan’s future security policy is required especially by those who want Pakistan to roll over and play dead just because it is in a transitional phase and has vulnerabilities that are being ruthlessly exploited by others.

Pressure Tactics

By Ghalib Sultan

The recent New York Times article (NYT, Monday 20th November) that focuses on possible US military operations across the Pakistan-Afghan border into Pakistan to pursue Taliban and destroy sanctuaries may not be accurate but it is not that far off the mark as is being suggested. It has to be seen in the overall context of the pressure being orchestrated to get Pakistan to eliminate ‘Taliban sanctuaries’ in the FATA and Baluchistan. These ‘sanctuaries’ are being seen as the main reason for continued Taliban resistance, even resurgence, in Afghanistan by the US and their hosts-the Afghan government. The US wants Pakistan to ‘sanitize’ these sanctuaries.

The pressure on Pakistan to ‘act’ was always there. It has picked up dramatic momentum after the US Afghan War Strategy Review. Several tracks are being used to create a cumulative effect. There is the impression being created that the political government wants to fast track the normalization process with India and respond positively to US demands for action in the western border areas but the ‘establishment’ (euphemism for the military and intelligence-ISI) are the stumbling blocks. Needless to say both India and the Afghan government support this view. The ‘establishment’ is being projected as the real force calling the shots in the country and having its own agenda linked to its resource requirements. The past is dredged up to focus on old transgressions like interventions and policies that led to negative consequences and a blowback that has destabilized the country. Doubts are periodically raised about the security of strategic assets and a past proliferation episode is repeatedly presented with ‘new’ and ‘just uncovered’ dimensions to involve the military institution. There has been a most significant surge in drone strikes and this has led to outrage in civil society. Linked to this is the media report of possible US cross-border operations against ‘sanctuaries’. Within the domestic context the overall effect is that anti-US sentiment increases, the military gets blamed for passivity and for giving unprecedented access to the US (WIKILEAKS confirmed this!). Inevitably decision making becomes difficult because no military waging a counter-insurgency campaign can afford to be alienated from civil society. The government and the military also cannot act in tandem if there is the perception of a civil military divide-especially if this perception is created and nurtured.

Where this orchestrated campaign takes us cannot be predicted but it is clear that it will not lead to a situation that Pakistan desires. Pakistan (including the ‘establishment) wants a government-military-civil society relationship that is seen to be pulling in the same strategic direction and jointly resisting the attempts to cause discord or create the perception of discord. Pakistan understands its internal environment better than anybody else and knows that economic viability, security and internal harmony are interlinked and sensing the change in the regional balance of power knows that there cannot be a push for anything other than a threat reduction policy – this has implications for Pakistan’s policies towards India and Afghanistan. Pakistan – neither the government nor the establishment – can allow themselves to be railroaded into actions that lead to imbalance and violence across the country in a period of economic vulnerability. There is full understanding in Pakistan that sections of the western border areas are havens for drugs and weapon smugglers, bomb makers, suicide bomber trainers, criminals, kidnappers, insurgents and terrorists and would-be terrorists from across the world as well as Afghan Taliban, Al Qaeda and various other organizations that are active in the region. Afghanistan and Pakistan are the two countries directly affected but legitimate concerns exist in the Central Asian States, Russia, China, India, Iran and countries that have disenchanted segments of society. Why would Pakistan want ‘sanctuaries’ that threaten it on its soil if it can act to destroy them?

So ‘sanctuaries’ are neither a US discovery nor an exclusive concern of the US. It follows that Pakistan would want its writ across its western border areas and stability within the country. The question is what effect is the US presence in Afghanistan having, how long this presence going to continue and how is it going to end – if ever? Clarity on this could do much to shape regional policies. The US-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue should either lead to an understanding of respective positions or it should be treated as a façade behind which transactional and expedient policies are being implemented by those who lack the vision to see beyond the tactical domain – the orchestrated pressures and manipulated perceptions then start making sense. The drugs-weapons-dollars chain needs to be seriously challenged. Border security needs to be enhanced by a multi state effort. The ambiguity surrounding drone strikes and their targets is no longer sustainable and an agreed policy has to be evolved. Intelligence coordination on a regional basis is badly needed to track the dispersal of terrorists and exposure of their sponsors. Economic aid and support measures have to be raised to levels that compensate the countries involved for what they are losing. An overall environment has to be created for a negotiated political settlement that is acceptable to all and that survives the US/NATO withdrawal.

Word Games

By: Fatima Rizvi

The name of the game is doing everything and anything to gain an advantage. Blame others, cheat, scandalize, accuse, lie, fabricate-so long as you do in someone and get ahead. This is driving media debates, news, court cases, investigations and gossip. Ambassador Holbrooke, on his last visit commented on Musharaff by saying that ‘he had as much chance as Gorbachev of coming back’ and that ‘if he had done what he had promised to the US he would have been still around’. The sycophants who surround the former President swung into action – they said that this (Holbrooke’s statement) was proof that Musharraf had refused to do what the US wanted him to do and that he had put Pakistan’s interests first. Also that he had distanced himself from US when he found out that their policy was at odds with Pakistan’s.

No one believed any of this, but why pass up a chance to outwit someone – even if it is your benefactor!

Read Complete Article: http://www.zoneasia-pk.com/ZoneAsia-Pk/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2639:word-games&catid=70:free-talk&Itemid=84

China has role in Kashmir: Attique

Hameed Shaheen

ISLAMABAD: Sardar Attique Ahmed Khan Prime Minister of Azad Kashmir says China, being contiguous regional country, is destined to play a crucial role in efforts for settlement of Kashmir dispute. “In fact strategically there are seven parties to this dispute now: Pakistan, India, Kashmiris, China, UN Security Council, European Parliament (EP) and Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC). Kashmir is being debated as active dispute on the yearly agendas of EP and OIC who have passed strong resolutions supporting Kashmiris right to self-determination”, he said while talking to a group of legal experts meeting him in Kashmir House here.

“China is a global power and is bound to play a global role. British Prime Minister Mr David Cameron’s call yesterday to China to undertake its role as global balancer is in fact acceptance of the emerging status of China in world affairs. The phenomenal economic rise of Beijing is most impressive and it is now an active model for the developing nations”, he observed.

The AJK Premier expressed the need to coordinate the Kashmir roles of all the seven parties to the dispute. “It is a happy sign that the EP has agreed to associate the UN and the OIC in its (EP’s) Kashmir settlement efforts at the global level. What we now need is to consolidate all Kashmir-specific roles of UN, OIC, EP, Pakistan, China, Kashmiris to smoothen avenues towards peaceful solution to the dispute, he pointed out.

“We understand”, the AJK Premier said, “that the EP is trying to have UN and OIC participations in its forthcoming Global Discourse on Kashmir being held in Brussels in mid-March next year”. Therefore our diplomatic recourse should be tailored according to this new emerging reality of global institutional linkage on Kashmir, he stressed.

Replying a question he said that the US considers Kashmir as a dispute. President Barack Obama during his recent India visit clearly classed Kashmir as longstanding dispute needing solution. UK also harbors similar views, considers Kashmir as outstanding dispute requiring settlement, he added.

It is a mockery of diplomacy to support Indian wish to ascend to the UN Security Council seat leaving Kashmir dispute unsettled at India’s backyard, the AJK Premier added.

16 hurt as protesters defy curfew in Indian-Occupied Kashmir

SRINAGAR, India – A clash between police in Kashmir and protesters who defied a curfew to demonstrate against the arrest of an anti-Indian separatist left 16 people injured Tuesday.

Masarat Alam, 44, who is known for his fiery denunciations of Delhi, was arrested by police on Monday in Srinagar, the summer capital of Indian-administered Kashmir, after evading capture for four months.

Thousands of security forces Tuesday implemented a strict curfew in parts of Kashmir to try to pre-empt protests over Alam’s arrest.

Police said in northern Baramulla district dozens of protesters defied a curfew and clashed with police.

A police spokesman said “11 policemen, including three officers, and five protesters were injured during the clash”, adding that police fired teargas and rubber bullets to disperse the demonstrators, who retaliated by hurling stones.

The situation remained “by and large normal in other parts of Kashmir,” the spokesman said.

Alam had organised anti-India demonstrations in the Muslim-majority region which has been experienced rolling curfews and strikes since June 11, when a 17-year-old student was killed by a police teargas shell.

Since then, more than 110 protesters and bystanders have died.

Meanwhile, a 24-hour standoff between troops and an injured militant who was holed up inside a mosque ended Tuesday with the rebel’s death, police said.

Police said repeated attempts to persuade the militant to surrender had failed. He took refuge in the mosque early on Monday, having been injured in a gunbattle with Indian troops.

“He died of the injuries he had sustained during the encounter. The mosque was not stormed by the troops nor was any fire directed at the religious structure,” a police officer said, wishing to remain anonymous.

The gunbattle outside the mosque in the northern district of Bandipora had left one other militant dead.

Militants have occasionally taken shelter in Kashmiri mosques in the past, with security forces facing the risk of a public backlash in the state if they pursue them.

Separatist militants have been battling Indian rule since 1989 in Muslim-majority Kashmir. At least 47,000 people, more than a third of them civilians, have died in the conflict, according to official figures.

India, Indonesia worst for red tape in Asia: survey

SINGAPORE – India, Indonesia and the Philippines have Asia’s most inefficient bureaucracies, with red tape a constant blight to citizens and deterrent to foreign investment, a survey said Wednesday.

India, Indonesia and the Philippines have Asia’s most inefficient bureaucracies, a survey said Wednesday

Regional financial centres Singapore and Hong Kong have the most efficient bureaucracies, according to the survey of expatriate business executives by the Political and Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC).

Government bureaucracies in some Asian countries have become “power centres” in their own right, allowing them to effectively resist efforts toward reforms by politicians and appointed officials, the Hong Kong-based firm said.

India had a score of 9.41, followed by Indonesia (8.59), the Philippines (8.37), Vietnam (8.13) and China (7.93). Malaysia was in sixth place from the bottom with a score of 6.97, followed by Taiwan (6.60), Japan (6.57), South Korea (6.13) and Thailand (5.53). Singapore was ranked has having the most efficient bureaucracy, with a score of 2.53, followed by Hong Kong with 3.49.

PERC said 1,373 middle and senior expatriate executives took part in the survey carried out earlier this year. Singapore was also number one and Hong Kong was in third place globally in the World Bank’s latest survey on the ease of doing business, which covered 183 economies.

In India, “politicians frequently promise to reform and revitalise the Indian bureaucracy, but they have been ineffective in doing so — mainly because the civil service is a power centre in its own right,” PERC said. Dealing with India’s bureaucracy “can be one of the most frustrating experiences for any Indian, let alone a foreign investor,” it added. Bureaucratic red tape is both a “serious problem” in China and India, “but the differences in the political systems of these two countries have made inertia much worse in India than in China,” it said.

India’s suffocating bureaucracy was ranked the least-efficient by the survey, which said working with the country’s civil servants was a slow and painful process. The ranking of countries by most efficient to least efficient economies is as follows: Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand, South Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam, China, Philippines, Indonesia and India.

NUCLEAR COOPERATION

By: Ghalib Sultan

  When the US signed the Nuclear Technology Agreement with India it not only made a single country exception but also set a precedent for such cooperation. When the IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) endorsed the US-India Nuclear Agreement they knew that trade in nuclear materials would increase and that there would inevitably be consequences. If the US hoped to gain from the agreement with India then those hopes have been dashed. Russia and France may be the major economic beneficiaries. India has not agreed to a moratorium on nuclear tests, it has not ended fissile material production and is quite happy to have Pakistan up front in resisting the FMCT. India has also got away with eight unsafeguarded nuclear facilities as well as access to nuclear fuel. Surely there were other options for the US to get India as an ally if that was the main aim of the Nuclear Agreement. As it is the US has given much and gained nothing.

  The hawks in India and their paid surrogates in the US and elsewhere are exhorting the US to step in the way of fully safeguarded nuclear cooperation between Pakistan and China. China is a huge market for nuclear material—Westinghouse and Areva are already working there and eyeing future contracts. The US wants China’s support in the sanctions against Iran. China can rein in North Korea and the US wants Chinese silence as US Patriot missiles are deployed in Poland as part of the containment of Russia. The US watches Russian inroads into Europe especially the German-Russian cooperative relationship and Russia regaining its sphere of influence in the CAS. China can neither be ignored nor overtly opposed on peripheral issues. China is unlikely to violate the non-proliferation regime especially NSG guidelines.

  Fortunately for all the US has chosen not to oppose the Pakistan –China nuclear cooperation that is driving the agreement on two more reactors for Pakistan in addition to the two already functional. The US response has been restrained and mature. The Indian response, probably taking its cue from the US reaction has also been low key. These are the official positions and these will not stop the paid hacks from their one sided criticisms and their dirty tricks opposition.

Amnesty team on rare visit to Indian Kashmir: officials

SRINAGAR, India – A two-member team from Amnesty International arrived Monday on a rare visit to Indian-ruled Kashmir to assess the human rights situation in the revolt-hit region, officials said.

Indian soldiers display arms and ammunition recovered from slain militants at the army headquarters in Srinagar

It is for the first time since the eruption of an insurgency against Indian rule in 1989 that New Delhi has allowed the rights watchdog to visit the scenic region.

“The two-member team arrived in Srinagar on an assessment tour today,” a police officer told AFP on condition of anonymity.

“They will be here for few days,” he said, adding local human rights activists were coordinating their visits to various places.

The two members — both Indian — visited the house of jailed separatist Shabir Shah and held a two-hour meeting with his wife.

“I told them how my husband has been arrested on and off on meaningless pretexts,” Bilkees Shah told AFP.

Police say the separatist has been booked for instigating anti-India protests.

“I also apprised them of grave human rights violations taking place in Kashmir at the hands of security forces,” she said, urging Amnesty to play its role in securing the release of political prisoners.

Mirwaiz Umar Farooq, who is a leading separatist and chief cleric at Kashmir’s main mosque, welcomed the rare visit by Amnesty.

“Amnesty should focus on the ground situation in the territory, particularly the illegal detention of political figures and the disappearances of over 9,000 persons,” Farooq said in a statement.

Anti-India sentiment runs deep in Muslim-majority Kashmir valley. Rights groups have accused troops of committing human rights violations in the region. Indian officials say they investigate all the claims.

Militants are also accused of rights violations.

The insurgency has left more than 47,000 people dead by official count. Rights groups put the toll at twice as high.