Ominous Silence

Recently the Parliamentary Committee on National Security decided to take Pakistan’s foreign policy to the floor of representatives and argue and debate relatively au courant terms of engagement with USA. While the opposition did sneer at the fact that these recommendations are not binding,non-state actors aka DPC,JI and Al- Zawahiri warned against re-opening NATO supply routes and announced that they won’t shirk from ‘spilling blood’ if the Parliament does give in to US pressure,the fact that for the first time national security and foreign policy was going to be debated and discussed instead of dictated was laudable,with millions of dollars riding on the big question of how far we are willing to go.

Yet the big question was relegated to the back burner at the fourth sitting of the joint session. While questions riddling the common man may not be big enough for our high handed politicians to address,recent developments in the country marked by an escalation of violence that doesn’t have Taliban written all over it is serious enough to have everything else take the back seat.

Karachi’s turf wars and ‘day of mourning’ turned into days of mourning for many families torn asunder in the ANP- MQM crossfire. Grievances festered to the point that henchmen came out to burn effigies of their bosses/representatives and demanded a ‘Swat like’ military operation in the pestilent localities of Lyari,Katti Pahari,North Nazimabad,Benaras,Shah Faisal,Korangi,Malir and Kasba which is in flames today. Rehman Malik splutters out condemnation and vows vengeance every time this happens,yet his faux crackdown did little than tweak whiskers the last time. They’re back,bigger,stronger and armed to their teeth,playing out the aftermath of post Soviet-Afghan war like it happened yesterday. The complicated politics of Karachi will not disentangle on its own like our government hopes it will. Even the top echelons are playing favorites in this cat eat mouse game. Maybe a stringent de-weaponisation crack down is what Karachi needs. Take the lion’s teeth away and it can only meow.

Sind’s epicenter might be a festering pustule,but is Punjab safe from the epidemic? Mass hysteria over endless hours of load shedding,ensued right after Punjab had come to terms with the fact that gas and CNG were relics of past glory. The government’s economic policy clearly isn’t geared towards bolstering the industrial sector as Faisalabad learnt last year;it isn’t agro or livestock oriented as one quarter of Pakistan thrust under the poverty line,that tries to forage for scraps to eat will tell you. A country that hasn’t yet experienced the organic shift from agricultural to manufacturing sectors can’t possibly have a thriving service sector either,it’s easier to picture our economy as a formless entity floating aimlessly in space towards a black hole.

Two provinces down,the third,the biggest in terms of land mass and smallest in terms of population has fingers crossed for balkanization of the region. The level of intrigue and mystique surrounding the third province is interminable. News of bounty being announced for the death of Punjabis straying in Balochistan filters out now and then and people are gripped with fear. The media and other political parties,with PTI at the fore of it have endless capacity and breath to waste on spewing criticism at the government and every preceding government in the past,reinforcing the point that balkanization might indeed be the best solution. Give the Sardars their barren play ground. A province where every provincial assembly member is given an amount set in millions for development in their constituency,but still posts an abysmal income per capita of USD 183 (PKR- 16287) per year cannot blame the federal government for the insurgency and having an ‘apathetic’ attitude towards the province. Not when the Sardars are known for smuggling weaponry worth millions from across the border and run a thriving black market with the parliament’s blessings.

KP once the adorned bride of the country is now the easiest target for terrorist activity,planting seeds of anarchy and home to the largest population of displaced people in the country. It is a province of diametrically conflicting facets where development has taken a back seat because drone attacks and military operations trying to weed out terrorists must rip the place apart first. The Northern Province has seen traumatic times in the past decade,from earth quakes,to floods,to mass terror and ensuing military operations. They have killed and been killed a thousand times over to the point where the peaceful stalemate of Kashmir is an enviable situation compared to Pakistan.

An ominous silence hangs like noxious fumes in the country poisoning corrupting and suffusing the air with mass hopelessness. Will this state of chaos lead to an ultimate implosion removing Pakistan from the equation,may be a revolution along the lines of Arab Spring which can only lead to more instability and is an unlikely possibility as it requires Pakistani’s to first and foremost unite. Building a state requires a skeleton of institutions,the sinew and muscle is later augmented by nurturing the body around the skeleton. What we need is not verbal diarrhea from political parties that have the ability of infusing hope in the populace or promises of rooting out corruption in nine days by politicians creating demigod like personas. It begs merit and sincerity to the people of the country. It requires the level of even headedness and authority that Lee Kwan Yew and Mahathir Mohammed displayed when their countries hit rock bottom. More importantly we the people need to realize we cannot be played against each other to fill some elusive character’s coffers or play out their fantastical ideologies. Pakistan isn’t a lost cause,not yet,not by a long shot. Our external affairs can take a back seat for the moment,we cannot act like jilted lovers and have no one to blame but ourselves,let’s take on the responsibility for slaying these self created dragons ourselves too.

What next in Afghanistan?

Afshain Afzal

After the failure of recent talks between Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao and US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and National Security Advisor James Jones, India has been singled out but still it will work to achieve some of the US objectives which suits New Delhi. New Delhi was quick enough to pick up the mood of Washington over its reaction on February 26, Kabul attack. India claims that the attack was carried out on Indian nationals but for unknown reasons Washington is adamant not accept that target of the attackers was Indians. If we recall, Holbrooke, said on March 3, “I don’t accept the fact that this was an attack on an Indian facility. There were foreigners and non- Indians hurt. It was a soft target. Let’s not jump to conclusions.” Indian National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon who just concluded his visit of Kabul claimed that the terrorists’ chief target were Indians. It is pertinent to mention here that in February 26 attack, suicide bombers struck at a hotel and a guest house in Kabul, killing seven Indians. In a latest development, another setback for India is on its way as Washington intends not put David Headley on gallows and award him lighter sentence. Headley, who is main culprit behind Mumbai attack and agent of US top intelligence agencies, got the plea bargain entered in federal court in Chicago.

In the present scenario, India is playing a double game with US. With regard to Iran, it is convincing Tehran that India and Iran share common interests in eliminating Taliban from Afghan politics but at the same time a Plan B is being obediently persuaded to expose Iran before US as a bad guy. Despite widening gulf between Washington and New Delhi over view point on Afghanistan, India is confident that it may be able be collect some more eggs from US’ basket in the name of Iran triumph card. In much haste, Nirupama Rao met top Obama Administration officials including US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, National Security Advisor James Jones, Under Secretary of State for Economic Affairs, Robert Hormats, Under Secretary of State for Democracy Global Affairs, Maria Otero, Congressman Gary Ackerman and Senator Joseph Lieberman. Indian External Affairs Minister, S M Krishna is also expected to visit Washington soon for the first round of Strategic Dialogue with Hillary Clinton. India-US Strategic Dialogue agenda include cooperation in defense, nuclear energy, counter-terrorism, agriculture, education, energy, space, cyber-security etc. So far things seem good but the chances for New Delhi to convince Washington to alter its plan to withdraw combatants from Afghanistan are not going to yield fruit.

India has made up its mind to go for plan ‘B’ by engaging Tehran to work on pro-India stable Afghanistan. Washington has already tasked New Delhi to create a battleground in Central Asian Republics (CARs) to fight another phase of Global War on Terrorism there. New Delhi is currently holding talks with Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan to instigate them against those who shares ethnic ties with Afghan people. It is pertinent to mention here that in the recent meeting between Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin a joint strategy was worked out in which future strategic and tactical moves against Afghanistan and its people in different countries was discussed. In the same context, Indian forces including its ITBP commandos along with US and other western forces in Afghanistan are preparing to move through the Northern Distribution Network, a corridor connecting the Baltic and Black Sea ports with Afghanistan through Russia, the Caucasus, and Central Asia. It is suspected that pullout of the US and allied forces would also take place from same corridor.

India feels much perturbed over international community’s change in the course in Afghanistan and fears that sooner or later a total isolation is in its destiny. New Delhi fears that change in US policy has taken place in consultation with Afghan government under President Hamid Karzai, in which White House and Pentagon and Taliban are all on one side while Indian is left all alone in this great game. The ground position supports New Delhi’s fears but the factual position is amazingly quite different. Today India is experiencing tremendous pressure from US and Kabul in dealing with Pakistan as if there is some secret understanding between Pakistan and these countries. If we peep into the history of Indo-Pakistan and Afghanistan, we would find surprisingly replica moves by the British and the Americans in 19th century. New Delhi need not to be troubled about its investment in Afghanistan as due to the same aid till now New Delhi had been enjoying say in Afghan affairs. Obviously, if India is looking for a greater role in the region, it must not worry about couple of a billion dollars and some precious lives. India should not feel insulted, if US has finally taken out its Pakistan card to settle the dust in Afghanistan. The fact cannot be denied that people of Pakistan and Afghanistan are brothers and in the same context it has been rightly pointed out by Afghan President Hamid Karzai in his recent statement that India was a friend and Pakistan a conjoined twin. In 1830ies the western powers used Sikh card to destabilize the legitimate government of Ameer of Afghanistan. At that time it was Shah Shujjah who acted as an instrument in the hands of British and Americans. This time history repeated itself when for the last ten years New Delhi, wittingly or unwittingly served as pawn in the great game. It is recorded in the history that when Sikhs gain influence in certain areas and became powerful, British carried out war against them to weaken their power. Same is going to happen with regard to India, when western powers would feel threaten of growing Indian power in Afghanistan and neighbouring countries.