Understanding Gwadar Port

Recently there has been some criticism of the strategic decision to build Gwadar port. In fact one critic has called the Port a — cruel joke. It is therefore important that we marshal some facts and then decide whether Gwadar was in Pakistan’s interest or not. It is important to get this right because future policies of the new government will depend on how we view Gwadar.

The usual criteria for a port have been listed and it is being said that Gwadar does not meet these criteria. However, there are hundreds of ports which meet these criteria but are of negligible significance. On the other hand some of the world’s most successful ports do not meet these criteria. There was huge skepticism when the 50 – berth Jabel Ali port was conceived. It met none of these criteria. In fact it was just a sandy beach with no infrastructure, no communications network, no population, no thriving hinterland, no areas of production, no water, power, roads, rail roads etc at all. Today it is a hugely thriving port.

The cost of building a port has no relevance to port charges. Jabel Ali’s cost was huge, but port charges are amongst the lowest in the world, less than 20% of Karachi for a big container ship. There are many other such examples around the world.

The fact that we have Karachi and Port Qasim does not in any way mean that another port is not necessary. Look at Western Europe and the number of huge ports within short distances of each other. There are many factors relevant to building a port.

It is a question of what ones objectives are and how they are to be achieved. The blunder regarding Gwadar was that a bunch of “land-lubber babus” with no idea of maritime affairs and port development signed a ridiculous contract with the Port of Singapore Authority ’s independent offshore subsidiary. It was a bad contract.

In principle one can agree that building Gwadar should have had no relevance to defence. Gwadar was not conceived from the defence point of view, as its PC-I would clearly indicate. For defence purposes the Navy has rightly chosen Ormara. Even though Gwadar was not planned for defence purposes, now that it is there it does help national defence significantly.

There is no doubt that both Karachi and Port Qasim have considerable potential for growth. In fact Karachi ’s own potential for growth was substantial when Port Qasim was built. Many people considered Port Qasim unnecessary, as the areas within Karachi harbor could be developed at a much cheaper cost. Yet, today, Port Qasim is a thriving port and has already overtaken Karachi in many activities. Their growth potential has no relevance to Gwadar.

The Pakistan Navy never had reservations on Gwadar. If the Planning Commission’s had reservations then this  is understandable. It is their job to have reservations about any new project until they can be satisfied, which is inevitable before the project PC-I is approved.

Connecting to Central Asia should not be a primary consideration. This is a totally different subject and has no relevance to building a port at Gwadar.

Here are some reasons why a port at Gwadar makes ample sense.

1. The congested port of Karachi has complete facility for importing and storing the entire requirement of Pakistan ’s fuel supply. The port is shallow and cannot take big ships, making cost of transportation on small ships expensive.
2. Every oil tanker steams hundreds of kilometers past Gwadar to Karachi , full of fuel from the Gulf and steams back empty. All that extra steaming costs extra money for every vessel.
3. The extra cost of small ships carrying fuel plus a thousand kilometers extra steaming costs money makes the landed cost of oil high. This ends up making everything in Pakistan more expensive for the consumer. Gwadar is a fine alternative. For this reason alone the port of Gwadar is fully justified.
4. Similarly, all refineries and storage facilities are located in Karachi , which again is not wise. As anyone who has lived in Karachi (or, indeed in Pakistan ) during the 1965 and 1971 wars would have seen, our entire storage capacity went up in flames, exclusively because of vulnerability based on Karachi ’s proximity to the Indian border. This is not a defence requirement. It is a strategic need to ensure fuel supply for the nation’s civilian and military use for as long as a war may last. Today the nations trains, trucks, buses, power plants etc will come to a halt within a few days after destruction of Karachi ’s storage facilities.
5. Connecting the oil terminal at Gwadar to the national hub near Mehmoodkot does not require government funding. The PARCO pipeline from Karachi to Mehmoodkot was built by the private sector and has been making money consistently since it was built. There is no dearth of commercial companies which will gladly put up a pipeline from Gwadar. The pipeline business is a huge thriving commercial business worldwide.
6. Along with the oil terminal one or more refineries at Gwadar is logical. This again requires no government investment. Private sector refineries make much more money worldwide than government ones do.
7. All the above activities of oil terminals, oil storage, refineries and pipelines do not need a rail connection or even extensive road connections, expect for moving people and limited supplies.
8. Karachi is a commercial port. Port Qasim is an industrial port. Gwadar would logically be a logistics port. Besides the oil sector it is ideally suited for consolidation and packaging of a wide spectrum of goods. For example, items packed in different countries cost a lot to transport to and from the Gulf area. Brought in bulk to Gwadar, finished and packaged there and then delivered to existing buyers in the region would reduce the per unit cost of a very large spectrum of consumer items. Here again rail connections are not necessary while road connections would develop naturally for goods destined within the country; but the main purpose of a logistics port is re-export.
9. Being based outside the Gulf it is not vulnerable to all the risks of turmoil in the highly volatile Gulf area. There is no knowing which direction the confrontation of America will lead Iran ; nor how the Arab Spring will effect the Gulf. We have seen marine insurance rates rocket up whenever there is tension in the Gulf. This leads to huge increases in freight for vessels entering the Gulf. Gwadar is immune to that.
10. It is seldom known by even well-informed people that Gwadar has the only Roll-On, Roll-Off berth in Pakistan . Naturally they would not be aware of the advantages of this Ro Ro berth.
11. There is very limited ship building facility in Pakistan . The only ship-yard is in a narrow channel of a shallow part of Karachi port. Gwadar is ideally suited for ship-building, again, exclusively by the private sector. Ship-building, ship repair, fabrication, oil field supply equipment building and maintenance are all vulnerable inside the Gulf. They can easily be undertaken at a port at the mouth of the Gulf, which is attractive for enterprising investors, given correct incentives and facilities.

Now that we have the port it must be used in the best manner. The Chinese have their own plans, as they now hold the new management contract. It is inevitable the Chinese will make a go of the port for their own commercial reasons. That opens up huge avenues for Pakistanis to benefit from the port, particularly as the infrastructure develops. Completing the road from Gwadar to Ratto Dero will almost certainly be a high priority for the Chinese as well as for our own government. That will obviate the need to take cargo from Gwadar to Karachi and will inevitably create new opportunities for generating wealth for the country, as well as bring prosperity to the entire region.

Task Force on Maritime Industry set up by the government was categorical in condemning the Agreement with the Port of Singapore Authority and initiated its successful termination. The Task Force comprised of some of the best minds in our maritime sector and was headed by a former naval officer Naeem Sarfaraz, one of our most experienced mariners. After deep study they were convinced of the long term benefits of Gwadar, but only after Port of Singapore Authority left the scene. A detailed study, by our own Pakistani experts rather than by foreign Consultants, can assist in rapid and successful utilization of Pakistan ’s deepest port where unlimited opportunities have now opened up. But success is possible only if prevailing greed and corruption are replaced by professionalism.

By Ghalib Sultan

ZoneAsia-Pk: Democracy Roars?

By Minahil K.
ZoneAsia-Pk

The triumph of the tiger whilst a seemingly déjà vu experience, marks a new era in the democratic history of Pakistan. Pakistan’s 65-year narrative has taken a turn for the better: the nation has explicitly expressed its will to survive as it exercised its voting rights and a government has completed its five year tenure. A care-taker set-up is in place, anxiously waiting to hand over the burden of state responsibility to the victor. The care-takers with their lack of public mandate have managed to keep things buoyant and have on purpose, refrained from tackling difficult challenges. Perhaps, it is this role only that is suited to them and the bold decision-making falls best within the domain of a government that is voted into power by the masses.

The tiger, though a solitary hunter in its natural habitat now has to carefully select a pack to legitimize the awarded mandate. There are no official announcements as yet but the rumor mills are abuzz with talk of possibilities. While the nation speculates and finds entertainment in placing bets on the likely inductees, it is important to be well-informed about the credentials of the key cubs in question.

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ZoneAsia-Pk: THE SHARIF ‘SIAPA’

By Ghalib Sultan
ZoneAsia-Pk

‘Siapa’ is a wonderfully expressive Punjabi word almost impossible to accurately translate into English. It means a development or situation full of interconnected problems, difficulties, contradictions and intrigues – not easy to resolve and not easy to live with. Why should the elections that catapulted the Sharifs to power be a ‘siapa’?

For starters there is the track record of their past stints in power. The first time around they had a President who was a thorough gentleman dedicated to democracy and ready to help them govern. There was also an army Chief who was a thorough professional with zero interest in politics ready to support in every way. The elder Sharif went into totally unnecessary confrontations with them egged on with the sycophants and jesters around him. He took the situation to the point where there was a ludicrous confrontation between the institutions that were a phone call away from each other. The result was an Army brokered arrangement with both the President and the Sharif departing ignominiously.

The second time around there was an equally supportive and gentlemanly President and an equally professional Army Chief. In addition there was a Chief Justice who wanted to uphold the Constitution and the rule of law. Once again the elder Sharif with the same motley crowd around him confronted each one to the point where each left in disgust. With no sense of reality and amid much victorious chest thumping the Sharifs thought they had it made – their own President, their own Chief justice, and horror of horrors, the perception that by ignoring seniority and making an Army Chief of their choice they had finally conquered the military. This perception was rudely shattered when the ‘man of their choice’ proceeded to endanger the country’s security and then sent them off to jail. The next 10 years are directly attributable to these shenanigans of the Sharifs. An editorial in the London Economist of May 20, 1999 makes interesting and instructive reading. It also points to the horror that awaits us if the Sharifs are unchanged – Allah forbid. A nuclear test may be a notch in the belt but it can be a millstone around the neck if you cannot secure the country!!

The wish is that instead of hare brained schemes and incompetent sycophants the Sharifs will now bring competent teams for policy making, for governance and interaction abroad. We also know that if wishes were horses beggars would ride. The elder Sharif publicly prayed that he be given a mandate so that he did not have to deal with a messy coalition. He got it. But he had also got it in 1997 and blew it. Not only did he and his family go down but more importantly the country once again went down into the dungeon of military rule. What the Sharifs have never understood is that the mandate given to them is not for testing their manhood but for guiding this country and its hapless citizens to security and prosperity. They have to serve and not lord it over everyone and no one wants them to assemble a cast of minions, lackeys and sycophants. These can be left in the farmhouse in Jati Umra and trotted out for entertainment there.

FP Analysis: The Population Bomb

By Enum Naseer
FOR PAKISTAN

It is simple economics: resources are scarce and wants are unlimited. The problem of allocation gets more serious when population growth is unchecked- as is the case in Pakistan. It is confusing hence, that no one has taken the pains to voice the issue in the mainstream media; no political party mentioned it in its rallies; no slogans or chants went further than the usual clichés. While the future leaders and the public busy themselves with the task of wooing and being wooed, the population bomb ticks away. The promises and plans, albeit optimistic and hopeful, evade the population issue almost strategically. It is as if the fact that the unrestrained population growth will have an undesirable impact on the distribution of resources like food has gone unnoticed. Or more so perhaps, the problem has been brushed under the carpet for fear that it may give rise to an uncomfortable debate?

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Who will catch the big fish?

By Zara Zulfiqar
ZoneAsia-Pk

In Pakistan we believe, not in addressing causes, but getting overwhelmed by effects. Our law makers know they can’t execute well thought out policies effectively, so they just trim the weeds to make them look like grass. Not realizing unless the weed is uprooted it will grow back, and create room for more of its kind. We have seen it in the routine network jams that major cities experience every Eid, any holiday, even some Jummas. Another example is banning of ‘double sawari’, Basant, one wheeling. Most of us have come to terms with this bizarre system of ‘damage control’.

I have frequently heard people gab on ‘so what if it saves lives?’ Ethically speaking I’d rather be deprived of the luxury to text for a day than have a few dozen dying in a bomb blast. But the issue is not the inconvenience, rather the lazy psyche behind it. It takes almost no effort, and leaves the big fish swimming free, finding loopholes in these second grade solutions our law makers come up with. Such solutions are like allopathic medication, antibiotics, and antidepressants. They should be the last resort because your body becomes immune to the dose, and heavier doses are required to have the same effect. Not to mention they have severe side effects. Essentially they are making your body more and more dependent and continue to take a toll on normal bodily functions.

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PAKISTAN SHAMED!!

By Ghalib Sultan
Area 14/8

The picture on top says it all. A mob in the background and an exultant youth in the foreground with smoke, fire and burning homes all around. This was the scene in the heart of Lahore when Christian homes were set on fire because of alleged blasphemy by a Christian who had already been booked under the Blasphemy Law by the police on the complaint of a Muslim. The mob that went on the rampage looting and burning homes was apparently venting their rage. No one died and no injuries were reported but Pakistan’s image was destroyed beyond repair-collateral damage from the point of view of the bigoted and the intolerant but a mortal blow to Pakistan for those whose heads hung in shame.

Now that the smoke has blown away, compensatory payments made to those who lost everything, the rebuilding process begun and some arrests made a clearer picture is slowly emerging. The Police advised the people to run for their lives hours before the mob arrived and they ran-the men, the women, the aged and the children all ran for their lives in all directions away from their homes leaving everything behind. Why did the police do this-to facilitate looting and burning, to save lives or because they did not want or could not face down the mob to protect lives and property? If the Police had advance information did this information flow upwards and if it did was it ignored? And if it did not then why not?

There are credible reports that the mob came prepared for their grisly task—with sticks, stones, gasoline cans etc. If so then this was no spontaneous venting of rage. This was a well planned event for which a large number of people had been mustered and prepared. If this was planned then who was behind it?- those who wanted the land on which the colony was built?- or those who had political motives and wanted to undermine the political administration in Punjab or was it a combination of both?. The land mafia would have known the consequences of such an atrocity and it is unlikely that they actually believed that the land would fall in their lap after the pillage. The political motive is more plausible and is also borne out by the fact that after the attack on the Christians some apparently counter attacks were organized on the pride and joy of the Punjab government-the new Metrobus system.

The Punjab government moved quickly to limit the damage and to begin rehabilitation work. An inquiry has also been ordered and arrests made. No doubt that there has been political fall-out but on the positive side people have rallied in support of the Christian community and against the forces of bigotry and intolerance that exist in society. There have been many previous incidents of this kind but never has exemplary punishment been awarded to deter such behavior. In the final analysis the blame must also go to people who are ready to undertake such criminal and reprehensible behavior.

WHO SPEAKS FOR PAKISTAN?

By Ghalib Sultan
Area 14/8

Lahore hosted diplomats and other foreign dignitaries including the Deputy Prime Minister of Turkey at the launch of the new metro bus mass transit system. The launch ceremony went well and Lahorites hoped and prayed that the metro bus is a success and serves the masses. Unfortunately not everyone thought it was a great step forward. A former Chief Minister chose that occasion to run down his successor and the bus project. A minister termed the project ‘illegal’ as it was without federal approval and hinted at a corruption probe. Again this was timed with the launch event because such misgivings were never voiced in all the months that it took to complete the project. It is an election year and there is political polarization of the worst kind but shouldn’t the country take precedence over politics? In our ambition to outdo each other in proving loyalties to parties should Pakistan be publicly run down?

The present government is completing its 5 year tenure and the country is gearing up for elections. A caretaker government should take over soon. The Judiciary is functioning. The Military is doing its job. Politicians are busy doing what they do before elections—run down each other and extol their own virtues. The Tahirul Qadri intervention is being taken in stride for what it is—part of the political power play. Suddenly we have voices—responsible voices—talking about conspiracies by mysterious quarters to delay elections and prolong the caretaker arrangement. What does this say about Pakistan? That we cannot have elections? That we do not want to have elections? That we are doing what we do best—running down our own institutions? That, having made all the preparations, including setting up of an election commission, we now want to scuttle all that and start afresh? How does all this help our image?

Pakistan is in the grip of terrorist violence. There are economic problems. The government has problems in delivering governance. There is internal security and instability. Is any of this a surprise and reason enough to tell the world that we are failing, that there is no hope, that we are falling apart and that we cannot protect our assets because our security apparatus is penetrated by our enemies? Pakistan is in an area that has seen four decades of violence. Its policies have been framed by an authoritarian structure that has now been sidelined. The people want democracy and they want policies that create internal and external harmony. They will brook no interference from those who have other agendas. If this government has had difficulty in delivering all this then it has surely created the space for the next government to deliver. Isn’t this what we should be projecting to our people and the world? Shouldn’t we be focusing on what has actually been achieved?

Are we looking beyond our petty rivalries and vendettas at the bigger picture taking shape around us? The Arab Spring, Iran’s struggle, the US plans for the Pacific and its relationship with India and the South East Asian States, China’s growing power, a Russia that is consolidating , an Afghanistan that may stabilize and the ‘new silk road’ idea. There are vast opportunities and challenges for Pakistan if we can understand and exploit our strengths instead of forever moaning and groaning about our problems and weaknesses.

Quixotic Doings

Pakistan is in international headlines today not because of any investigative reporting by some foreign journalist but by the actions of Pakistanis themselves. First the Chairman of the National Accountability Bureau volunteered to be interviewed on a TV channel. Not only did he take the opportunity (conveniently provided by the anchor) to refute all the allegations against him but he also did a super job of blowing his own trumpet. Perhaps carried away by his own eloquence and affected accent he declared that the daily corruption in Pakistan was Rupees 15 billion. He did not back up this assertion by any data or statistics or any research or analysis report. This statement by a top Pakistani official was swallowed hook, line and sinker by a public ready to believe the worst and a world that simply loves helping Pakistan do it to itself. Couldn’t this former Navy man turned Mr. Accountability go and brief the government that appointed him or does he have no faith in them? His seemingly bold action has endeared him to the public albeit briefly before the focus shifts back to his own track record with a business tycoon now facing the courts? Quite rightly the Prime Minister has summoned him to explain his conduct and if the Prime Minister has a spine he will haul him over the coals and then get to the facts. Almost immediately after the summons the man has given a public ‘explanation’ to pacify the government!!

Second there is the latest from an enterprising Pakistani journalist who is making a name for himself by unearthing ugly truths and making them public. His latest foray was into the tax returns of the Cabinet and the Members of Parliament and the report that he has produced tells the world that 75% of the peoples representatives do not pay taxes with some not even registered as tax payers and most of the rest paying very nominal amounts. His report is the subject of debates on TV and the international media has lapped it up. The countries that dole out their own tax payers’ dollars and pounds to us are not amused — in fact they must be thinking hard. Aren’t tax returns confidential documents? Is there any forum or methodology for media – government interaction when sensitive issues are involved or are ratings and personal ambitions more important than the country’s image? What effect would the release of this information have on those who are paying taxes? The Parliamentarians are rightly furious because the taxes on their meager salaries have not been indicated and nor have other things like advance tax and withholding tax that are compulsory deductions? How can tax be deducted from your salary without making you a registered tax payer with a national tax number?

Recent international surveys have ranked Pakistan among the most corrupt countries in the world, the worst governed and even among the worst places to be born in. One such report placed Pakistanis among the happiest people but now a columnist has written an article in which he tells us the difference between being happy and cheerful thereby debunking the notion that we are happy. Yet another writer informs us that the highest in the judicial hierarchy singled out a journalist for flowers after that journalist escaped an assassination attempt and then asks the question why only this journalist was sent flowers and not the countless and faceless others who have met violent ends.  Shouldn’t someone investigate a bomb that is so shoddily fixed that a conveniently standing bystander spots it and alerts the intended victim and a bomb planter who does not detonate it when the victim is sitting on the bomb and instead waits for it to be spotted? Must we make fools of ourselves?

By Ghalib Sultan

Lyari – Swat of Sindh

ZoneAsia-Pk

To the oldest locality of Pakistan’s largest city, violence and illegal activities is not new. Lyari saw its first well known gangster back in 1960s. Gangs were typically involved in drug smuggling, bootlegging and other street crimes. The situation took a turn for the worse in the 1980s when weapons and arms began to enter Pakistan through the anti-soviet war in Afghanistan.

Two of the largest and widely known gangs of Lyari are Arshad Pappu’s Gang and Rehman Daicait’s Gang. They once used to be on the same side but a conflict over profits caused Rehman and Haji Lalu, Arshad Pappu’s father, to split. This was a great setback for Lalu as Rehman took his supporters and contacts with him to form the Peoples Amn Committee in 2009.

The latest operation in Lyari was prompted by the murder of a Pakistan People’s party (PPP) leader, Malik Mohammad Khan a week ago.  The continuous state of insecurity has brought life to a standstill. Basic amenities of life like water, gas, electricity are not available. Meager food supplies and high  resistance against relief packages are a constant source of worry for the residents.  Exceptions for medical aid are not even made. It is reported that Edhi ambulances are forbidden from entering the zone in case their Baluch- ethnic drivers assist the criminals.

The violence stemming from gang wars has swollen to such great proportions that law enforcers are finding it difficult to quell the unrest. These gangsters have been using sophisticated weapons including rocket propelled grenades and some of their local inventions like the Awan, a combination of a grenade and a rocket launcher.  The police have returned fire by their Armored Personnel Carriers, which some believe are of little help as they frequently break down, are too large for the narrow lanes in Lyari and are not bullet proof. Other techniques like blocking mobile services in the area have also been used to disadvantage the criminals. But since they use walkie-talkies the only disadvantaged party are the common people who cannot communicate with each other.  Although rangers and paramilitary forces have been called to reinforce the operation, the deteriorating living conditions have forced many families to abandon their homes for safer neighborhoods.

The situation is not merely of a group of gangs involved in unlawful activities. The gangs themselves are struggling to control internal conflicts. One of the most notorious gangs, People’s Amn Committee, has witnessed a race amongst successors for its leadership. Rauf Baluch, who previously served as an advisor to  Rehman and his brother, was accused of tipping the police about the latter’s whereabouts in order to accede to his position. Rehman’s cousin, Akram Baluch was also interested in becoming the leader but his efforts were in vain. The gang is currently being lead by Uzair Baluch, who has not been as successful at uniting the gang’s members as Rehman was able to. CID reports claim that over 450 lives have been lost in the past 4 years from intra-gang conflicts. The death toll is even higher for disputes amongst  gangs like the Ghaffar Zikri gang, Faizu Dada gang, Rauf Baloch gang and Amjad Lashari gang.

What makes these rivalries even worse is political interference. Lyari is popularly known as the hub of PPP support. Party leaders like Nabeel Gabol and Rafiq Engineer have won through this constituency. In fact, PPP has won every election it has contested in Lyari since 1970 till 2008. It has kept a steady relationship with local gangs particularly the People’s Amn Committee. The gang’s leader, Uzair baluch, was reportedly appointed by PPP. Zulfikar Mirza,senior leader of PPP  has patronized Uzair baluch and Zafar baluch while Gabol has been on record for holding  a meeting with Uzair Baluch as recent as one to one and a half year ago. So one wonders what transpired between the two organizations that caused Gabol to accuse PAC for Malik Khan’s murder.

Some security analysts hold political parties responsible for the creation and development of militancy in gangs. PPP’s support to the Amn Committee is countered by MQM’s support to Arshad Pappu’s Gang and the Kutchi Community. Zafar Baluch recently attested to the fact that PPP armed the locals with weapons to aid their political rallies especially against MQM. These weapons are now allegedly being used against law enforcers. Both parties deny any involvement.

According to the Amn committee their rift with the PPP came about when the latter refused to help them in acquiring employment and achieving better living standards. Others believe the real reason to be the forced closure of the gang’s drug havens which affected their incomes. PPP leaders deny any involvement in illicit activities and pledge to stop all kind of criminals in the city.

The ethnic dimension of the violence is too distant an issue. The Baluch political parties have protested against the biased operation in Lyari which are targeting their community. They feel betrayed by the government for whom they voted for in the past. Protests have been carried out at various location like Nishter Road, PIB Colony and Malir. Shops were closed, roads were blocked, tires and effigies of PPP leaders were burned. But the Baluch Liberation Army’s (BLA) literature seized from some of Lyari’s gang members tells another story. The police believe BLA is using the help of Lyari gangs for their insurgency operations.

Law enforcement agencies are not free from allegations and scandals either. Numerous reports have been heard about the gradual success of police forces in securing parts of Lyari but many have been found to be an exaggeration. The efficacy of the police forces is questionable when about 15000 forces are deployed to take down only  few hundred  criminals. If gangsters are being caught and killed, the level of violence has not assuaged and neither has the public been given any proof of the  convicted or killed criminals. There are rumors which claim the police has joined forces with Arshad Pappu’s gang to take down members of the Amn Committee. At the same time, the weapons confiscated by the police are said to have vanished implying some underground deal. Many cases of corrupt actions have been heard against Chaudhry Aslam, the face of the law enforcement forces in Lyari. Some believe he yields more power than IG Sindh.

The situation in Lyari should be an eye opener for the government which at the moment is engrossed with new provinces and the fate of a convicted prime minister. Internal discontent is not intrinsic to Pakistan but the repetitive unwavering violence in Lyari should be taken seriously.

Irrespective of who is responsible in Lyari, the public is witnessing a change in their mood and probably loyalties. The well known hub of PPP may no longer be in the clutches of PPP. Extremely vocal and visible dissatisfaction has been shown regarding their leaders. The ruling party is already cornered on all fronts by the nation’s troubled economy, security and foreign policy situation. Internal divisions in the heart of its province may be the last blow for PPP.

More importantly, the perseverance of criminals and non-state actors to influence the state is dangerous. The ease with which internal peace can be disrupted makes Pakistan a prey to all kinds of possible schisms. The unlimited provision of warfare to criminals is already a sign of how much our unity has been eroded.

At the face of it Lyari’s grievances seem very simple- the right of employment, basic amenities and safety. Achieving these goals is not hard if the rulers and leaders of all the involved parties agree to put the interests of the public before their own interests. For the time being however, the unabated killings and siege in Lyari has to stop. The army has been quite adept at handling the violence in Karachi in the 1990s and more recently in Swat. A strong hand is needed to halt this violence but an even stronger will on the part of all political and social leaders is needed for sustainable peace.

THE DEAD MEMO

Some facts are clear. There was a memo. It was written by an affluent Europe based US citizen of Pakistani origin whose self stated loyalties are to the US and not Pakistan. It was delivered to Admiral Mike Mullen when he was the Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff in May 2011 by a retired four star general of the US Army on the request of the Pakistani American author. The author of the memo had been in extended contact with Pakistan’s Ambassador to the United States and they had discussed the content and thrust of the memo as well as its destination. Almost five months later the memo was deliberately resurrected by public exposure in a newspaper article written by the author of the memo. After its publication the chief of Pakistan’s intelligence agency personally contacted and subsequently met the author of the memo as part of an investigation and later briefed Pakistan’s Army Chief on his findings. The Army Chief briefed the President and as a result Pakistan’s Ambassador to the US resigned and ‘memogate’, as it began to be called, became the subject of two separate investigations—one by a Parliamentary Committee ordered by the government and one by a judicial Commission set up by the Supreme Court of Pakistan in response to a petition filed by the opposition political party. These investigations are ongoing and are the subject of much speculation—mostly in a segment of the local Pakistani media.

There are some grey areas. Was the memo the brain child of the Pakistani Ambassador and did he use the Pakistani American to write the memo and have it delivered or was the memo the idea of its author who used the Ambassador to discuss his ideas thereby involving him inextricably? Did the Ambassador act on his own in his interaction with the Pakistani-American gentleman or did he get the matter approved from his superiors? Did the Ambassador provide input and give encouragement if the memo was not his own idea? These are the questions to which the investigative bodies have to get answers in order to reach a final conclusion. This is by no means an impossible task.

There is one important factor that overshadows everything else. The accusations being hurled at each other, the efforts to undermine credibility, the deliberate obfuscation of facts and the attempts to kill the memo all combine to hide the fact that there is a basic convergence in the long held and often stated views of the two main protagonists. Both have a pathological hatred of the Pakistan military and its intelligence agency. Others share this view because they see these two institutions as being the center of gravity in Pakistan that must be undermined— and it is these ‘’others” who are busy explaining the memo as a plan to undermine the democratically elected government by the military/intelligence establishment. There are many in Pakistan who, foolishly, are furthering such an agenda. This makes the result of the investigations most important—-the memo is dead, long live the memo.

By Ghalib Sultan