The 2014 endgame

By Sabina Khan

US President George W Bush had said right after 9/11 that God had told him to invade Afghanistan. Ironically, this righteous claim sounds similar to the ones made by terrorists under the pretence of jihad. After ten years of war to install a democratic government and free the men and women in the conflict ridden country, what has actually been accomplished in Afghanistan? Is the world a safer place now that the US is preparing to withdraw their forces? Has terrorism been eradicated? As the 2014 troop withdrawal deadline nears, these questions deserve consideration.

In response to the 9/11 attacks, Bush called for an invasion of Afghanistan to destroy al Qaeda’s sanctuary. Long-term objectives of the effort comprised establishing a democracy and eliminating circumstances which led to terrorism. Being unable to convince the Taliban to hand over Osama bin Laden, the US strategy evolved to include killing and capturing their leaders, Mullah Omar being high on that list. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, the Taliban insurgency picked up and the death toll began to increase. Opium production flourished during this period as there were few other sources of income.

When US President Barack Obama took power in 2008, he shifted the focus back to Afghanistan and redefined the objectives. In 2009, he deployed an additional 30,000 troops and stated that his goal in Afghanistan was to “disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda”. In 2009, Defence Secretary Robert Gates stated that “at a minimum, the mission is to prevent the Taliban from retaking power… and turning Afghanistan potentially again into a haven for al Qaeda and other extremists”.

In his recent speech, Obama announced that 33,000 troops are being withdrawn by the summer of 2012 and that transition of power to Afghan security forces will be complete by 2014. Currently, Afghanistan’s newly-formed military consists of 150,000 soldiers but their ranks are scheduled to swell up to 260,000 in time for the 2014 deadline. Despite Nato’s efforts to train Afghan soldiers to read and write at the third grade level, almost 90 per cent of the recruits in the Afghan military are illiterate. High levels of desertion and infiltration also plague the Afghan security forces, which adds another aspect of uncertainty with the transition of power. Moreover, several insurgent groups remain firmly established in Kunar and Nuristan provinces, which border Pakistan’s tribal areas. Consequently, cross-border incidents have risen between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Several hundred militants crossed into Pakistan and conducted attacks in Upper Dir, Bajaur and Mohmand. In retaliation, Pakistan fired rockets on the border to target militants crossing over. Needless to say, relations between the two neighbours are troublesome.

This September marks ten years since the atrocious events of 9/11. Bin Laden is dead but al Qaeda remains very much alive. Conflict has spilled into Pakistan with death and destruction becoming a daily part of life. Meanwhile, the US has come full-circle and is now negotiating with the Taliban and preparing to allow them back into the official government. A recent and well-timed UN resolution draws distinction between al Qaeda and the Taliban. The pretext being that the Taliban only focus on conducting attacks in their own country unlike al Qaeda who carries out attacks worldwide. Thus, the Taliban have been removed from the UN sanctions list in order to help the US with their reconciliation efforts. These games do little to conceal the fact that the Afghan government is corrupt and poor. On top of that, their security forces can switch sides at any moment if enticed with money or threats. Despite the US government’s desire to keep Pakistan separate from their negotiations with the Taliban, it is time to face reality, the situation along the porous border remains and will continue to be a challenge for Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Hence, a comprehensive regional solution is required for long-term peace instead of a rushed secret backdoor deal which will certainly be short-lived. Our neighbour has been in a state of continuous conflict since the late 1970s. The ultimate resolution involves education and economic development, which entails long-term dedication and commitment from interested parties that are directly affected by the war in Afghanistan.

Egypt unrest: Pitched battles at Tahrir

By Laila Elimam

CAIRO: Midan Tahrir (Tahrir Square), which has remained the exclusive domain of millions of anti-government protests since the “Day of Anger” (Tuesday January 25), saw an invasion by supporters of Egypt’s embattled president on Wednesday, resulting in violent clashes between the two groups.

According to media reports, supporters from both sides threw stones and battled with sticks and fists, in the clashes that broke out early afternoon and were continuing after sunset.

Tension had been rising from early morning when President Hosni Mubarak’s supporters began staging their own rallies around Cairo, saying the president represented stability amid growing insecurity, and branding as “traitors” those who want his departure.

“There are members of the police in civilian clothing, posing as pro-Mubarak protestors, who are chasing us with rocks, bricks, and Molotov bombs,” said one protestor who was still at Tahrir

On Tuesday night, Mubarak addressed the nation stating that he will not seek re-election in September 2011 and will do what is necessary to implement reforms for the remainder of his term.

Some protesters were satisfied, but not all. For example, an anti-Mubarak protestor, who asked to remain anonymous, remained in Tahrir. “Some protesters said we have achieved our purpose and went home. But we’re not satisfied, so we’ve stayed.” They want Mubarak to leave and Omar Suleiman to be the interim President until elections.

However, on Wednesday, pro-Mubarak protestors flooded into the Square and clashes broke out between them and the anti-Mubarak camp.

Opposition figurehead Mohamed ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace laureate, called on the army to intervene to stop the violence, the worst in the nine-day uprising. But troops stood by and watched as the tumult raged. Media reports put the number of injured at 500 and even reported a death. Urging protesters to go home, the armed forces told them their demands had been heard.

Sally El Sabbahy, also a Cairo resident, said she admired the protestors’ courage, but was tired of the protests taking the country “hostage.” She added that they must not regard Mubarak’s speech as a loss “just because he is still president because they got him to admit that things have to change. At this point, it’s a priority for people to look back at their country and at themselves and restore the natural order of things.”

For now, Cairo remains in a surreal state of disarray; there are military tanks positioned around the city and helicopters constantly circling the skies.

The country’s economy will be affected gravely; but the general hope is that Egypt will be able to build itself back up, and soon – stronger and more dynamic.

Meanwhile, Vice President Omar Suleiman said anti-government protests must end before talks with the opposition can start.

A brief recount

The “Day of Anger” (January 25) marked the beginnings of what some have dubbed the “Egyptian Revolution;” inspired by Tunisia, a group of young Egyptians went to the streets to demand rights peacefully. The day’s protests were relatively calm considering past demonstrations in Egypt, although towards midnight, clashes had begun between police and demonstrators.

What followed in the next few days were a prelude to Friday, when protestors “promised” a larger, more intense protest.

Following Friday prayers, Cairo’s skies clouded with tear gas and its downtown square, Midan Tahrir, was filled with chaos as thousands, chanting against the regime, clashed with police.

The day’s events were quickly spiraling out of control. The ruling National Democratic Party’s Cairo headquarters were set ablaze and remained so for four hours before anyone started to put it out; Egypt’s 1.25 million police force had disappeared from the entire country; essentially, they abandoned ship.

Looters began robbing banks, restaurants, stores, and households nationwide. A curfew was imposed and widespread panic ensued as the military was supposedly moving in. Civilians began guarding their homes; they organised traffic in the absence of policemen and cleaned the streets.

Mubarak finally addressed the nation, stating that the government would be dissolved. Protestors were not satisfied.

The following days witnessed continuous curfews, looting and gunshots throughout the night, and a rising death toll.

The only thing that kept Iman Dawood, a Cairo resident, feeling safe were the neighbourhood watch groups; young men stood protecting their families and properties. She said, “although we were very frightened, it was inspiring to see residents come together to protect one another. This incident really restored my faith in Egyptians.”

In the coming days, the protestors stayed in Midan Tahrir, while the president appointed intelligence man Omar Suleiman as Vice President and military man Ahmed Shafik as Prime Minister. The Vice President told the nation that he was appointed seek dialogue with the opposition.

But anarchy was still ruling the nation. Reports also came that thousands of prisoners had escaped from unguarded prisons all over Egypt.

By Sunday, January 30 evening, the military had reached most places in Cairo and were mobilising throughout the country.

Iraq Prepares For War With Iran

Strategy Page

The Iraqi Army is hustling to get ready to deal with Iran, by the time the last 50,000 U.S. troops leave at the end of the year. Increased oil production, and oil prices, has made it possible to recruit more troops, and equip more combat divisions. Particularly noteworthy is the creation of Chemical Defense Regiments, with the goal of one of these units being assigned to each combat division over the next few years. The only neighbor known to have chemical weapons is Iran. Iraqi diplomats spend a lot of time trying to improve relationships with Iran, but just in case things go south, the Iraqi military is preparing for the worst.

While Iraq has sought to obtain a lot of American weapons, particularly tanks, artillery and combat aircraft, it’s been easier, and faster, to get Russian type gear from Russia or East European nations. A lot of this stuff is newly made, but most of it is Cold War surplus. These vehicles and artillery are cheap, a lot of older Iraqis are familiar with them, and they are as good as anything the Iranians have.

The Iraqi ground forces currently have nearly 200 infantry and tank battalions, organized into over 70 brigades and 17 divisions. There are a lot of independent brigades, and divisions are still waiting to receive artillery and armored vehicles and support units. Meanwhile, troops spend a lot of time performing security tasks, to aid the effort to track down the few remaining Sunni Arab terrorists.

By the end of the year, the army will have about 230,000 troops. They will not be as well as equipped as during Saddam Hussein’s tenure (1960s-2003), but they are better trained. This is important, because Iraqi troops have long been the least effective in the Arab world, largely because of poor leadership. The war with Iran in the 1980s changed that, but Saddam purged most of the competent new leaders, soon after, as he feared they would lead a coup against his disastrous rule (he was probably right.)

The Iraqi Army has come a long way since 2003, when the old, Sunni Arab dominated force was disbanded, and a new one, loyal to a democratic government, and led by newly recruited and trained officers, was built from scratch. Because of that, the Sunni Arabs loyal to Saddam (and Sunni Arab rule) fought a four year terror campaign. One response was the army forming the best troops into special “intervention” units. This resulted in an army organization consisting of one “Intervention Corps” and three other corps of lesser quality. Most divisions have four brigades, and a total strength of about 12,000-15,000 troops.

The 1st Intervention Corps consists of the two motorized, one infantry and one armored divisions. One of the motorized corps is the also known as the Reaction Force Division. This is considered the most effective division in the army, and one to be used for the most difficult situations. Think of this corps as the new “Republican Guard.”

Another independent security forces is the 1st and 2nd Presidential Brigades (for guarding senior officials), which is controlled by the armed forces headquarters.

The other three corps are named after the part of the country they are based in.

The Northern Corps has two motorized divisions and an infantry division. Two divisions of Kurdish troops serve as mountain divisions, but lack a lot of heavy weapons (tanks and artillery).

The Central Corps is the area around Baghdad, and the thinly populated Anbar Province to the west. This corps has two motorized divisions, one infantry division and one commando division.

The Southern Corps has three infantry divisions, with another infantry division planned. One of the existing divisions is motorized and another is designated a commando division,

There are other security forces, mainly four divisions of Federal Police, the Counter-Terror Command (with seven commando battalions and support troops), the Border Police and half dozen battalions worth of “Emergency Police” (SWAT, riot control) distributed around the country. These other security forces are nearly as large as the army, but are not as heavily armed, or trained for heavy combat.

The navy is currently, basically a coast guard. The air force consists of about a hundred transports, helicopters and recon aircraft. The 50,000 U.S. troops are mainly deployed in bases around Baghdad, and northern cities.

Even the army does not have a lot of heavy weapons. There are lots of newer armored hummers. Thousands of new armored vehicles are on order. Compared to Saddam’s force, the NCOs and officers (mostly from the Shia Arab majority), have less time in uniform, but are better trained. The Iraqis have learned a lot about fighting from their American mentors, but there are still a lot of bad habits (corruption, especially) that degrade combat effectiveness.

Kashmir as envisioned by Jinnah

The eminent British historian, H.V Hodson, while describing the personality of Quaid-i-Azam in his book, ‘The Great Divide’ said, “Of all the personalities in the great drama of India’s rebirth to independence, Mohammad Ali Jinnah was at once was the most enigmatic and the most important –it is barely conceivable –that a new nation State of Pakistan would have been created, but for the personality and leadership of one man, Mr. Jinnah.” Indeed, Mr Jinnah, “was as great as a lawyer, once great as a Congressman, great as a leader of Muslims, great as a world politician and diplomat, and greatest of all as a man of action.” His sudden death, soon after Pakistan came into being, indeed, was a great loss to Pakistan, while the world lost a greatest statesman.

It was because of the dedicated commitment of Quaid-i-Azam that Muslim of South Asia could get their homeland in spite of the strapping opposition, posed by the Hindu majority in united India. Since the state of Jammu and Kashmir was to become the part of Pakistan, therefore, the great Quaid had unparallel commitment with people of Kashmir and Kashmiri cause. While tracing the history, one would find that the fact remains that the first ever Muslim Political party of sub-continent the; “All India Muslim League” was formed in 1906, at the residence of a Kashmiri of Bengal, Sir Salimullah Khan. Above all, the greatest Philosopher, poet and Scholar Dr. Allama Muhammad Iqbal, a Kashmiri himself, initially sponsored the idea of a separate homeland for the Muslims of Sub-continent in 1930, emphasizing on the amalgamation of Muslim majority states, into a single state; we had in the form of Pakistan, in 1947. It was through his efforts that Quaid could be brought back to lead the political struggle of the Muslims of Sub-continent for their separate homeland.

Sequel to the proposal of this amalgamation, as a Chairman of the India Muslim Committee, Dr. Iqbal appealed to the Muslims of the whole sub-continent that they should observe 14th August 1934 as Kashmir Day. He also made it clear that, the dream of Muslim India would be incomplete without the freedom of the Islamic State of Kashmir. In a way, it was the formal announcement of Kashmir as an inalienable part of the new ideological Muslim State in Sub-continent. Therefore, Kashmir was not an exception, once the demand of a separate homeland for the Muslims in sub-continent was being made. Kashmir was to become part of Pakistan, and the word ‘K’ in Pakistan is indeed for the state of ‘Kashmir’. As revealed through the available archives, Quaid-i-Azam, visited Kashmir at least four times. Generally, it is referred as three times only. First time, Quaid visited Kashmir 1926. Apparently, it was a private visit to spend few holidays in Kashmir, but, practically, this visionary leader had used the visit to assess the socio-economic condition of the people of Kashmir, under the cruel rule of Maharaja Hari Singh.

Indeed, except Reading Room Party, there was no political awakening in the State, nor Kashmiris could form political parties. Earlier, once some noted Kashmiris dared to submit a memorandum to the Viceroy of India, demanding reforms in the educational and economic sectors, and to redress the grievances of Kashmiri masses, Dogra Government in Kashmir victimized them and some were even expelled from Kashmir. The Quaid uneasily watched this situation and later, got a special resolution passed in the All India Muslim League Working Committee session held in Lahore in 1926. The unanimously passed resolution drew the attention of the Maharajah’s Government towards the educational and economic backwardness of the Muslims of Kashmir and requested him to improve the living standard of the Muslim masses, forming bulk of the population. Quaid again visited Kashmir in 1929, and met with some leading personalities of the state. Both these visits remained low profile, in fact to watch the situation there.

As a leader of All India Muslim League, Quaid visited Kashmir in 1936 for the third time. He was given a landmark reception by the united Kashmiri leadership of Muslim Conference, with Sheikh Abdullah and Chudhary Ghlum Abbas in the forefront. During the visit, the Quaid, told the Kashmiris: “Oh yes Muslim! Our Allah is one, our Prophet is one, our Quran is one, and therefore our Voice must also be one”. Unfortunately, three years after this visit, there came a split among the leadership of Kashmir, and Sheikh Abdullah, raised a new political party with the name of National Conference. This in fact was a tragic development in the history of the Kashmiri Muslims. Had National Conference not acted as an unofficial offshoot of the Indian national Congress, Kashmiris would not have suffered these miseries in their 63 years of post partition life.

On the joint invitation of the Muslim Conference and the National Conference, Quaid, once again visited Kashmir in 1944. This was his fourth and the final visit to Kashmir, and he stayed in various parts of the state for over a month. He met with the leadership of all political parties in Kashmir and attended functions, meeting with workers, students, lawyers, common people and journalists. His stay in Kashmir being the last but the most important had a great impact on the future politics of Kashmir. Indeed, during this visit, the “tables were turned against the banner-bearers of the Hindu Congress.” However, there developed differences between Quaid and the leadership of National Conference, once Quaid advised party leadership to remain united for the future of Kashmir.

This is a historical fact that during this visit, Quaid advised Sheikh Abdullah, not to play in the hands of Hindu leadership of Indian National Congress (INC), who are extremely cunning, and opportunist and aims to look after the interests of majority Hindus only. This was indeed, the personnel experience of Quaid, during his membership of the INC from 1905 to 1913 and then up to 1921. During this tenure, Quaid worked for the Hindu-Muslim Unity, but, disappointed, owing to the selfishness of the Hindu and later, resigned from the basic membership of INC in 1921. Quaid’s love for the people of Kashmir can be imagined from the fact that, during his visit of Kashmir in 1944; he picked up a newly graduate Kashmiri youth, K.H. Khurshid as his personnel secretary. K.H. Khursid remained as the personnel secretary of the Quaid from 1944 to 1947.

Quaid-i-Azam issued clear orders to the Commander-in-Chief of Pakistan Army to dispatch troops to Jammu and Srinagar, once Maharaja of Kashmir allowed invasion of Indian forces, through a fraudulent accession on October 27, 1947. Unfortunately, Quaid’s orders were not implemented. However, later India took the matter to United Nations organization, where it was decided that, future of the state would be determined through a plebiscite under UN. However, this remains a reality that, Kashmir had already acceded to Pakistan, provisionally by offering the Standstill Agreement to Pakistan on 11th August 1947. The Kashmir Government made the offer to India also, but India did not respond to it whereas, Pakistan accepted the offer and the Standstill Agreement was signed between Pakistan and Kashmir.

Quaid-i-Azam tried his best to create circumstances, which could stop the annexation of Kashmir to India. The fraudulent accession of Kashmir with India in fact was the best example of deviation and contradiction of the INC from its basic stance, which says, the wishes of the masses would be taken into consideration in case of Princely states. Following the partition, Mr. Jinnah had to confront the Indo-British conspiracy with the Maharaja of Kashmir as a pawn, and the anti-Pakistan National Conference of Sheikh Abdullah as perpetrators. The odds were many and the enemies of Pakistan had joined hands to make the experiment of a free and independent Muslim state a failure. Quaid-i-Azam’s great achievement and miracle was the formation of Pakistan, which was opposed by the Hindu Congress and by the anti-Muslim elements in the British hierarchy. It was very unfortunate that Quaid-i-Azam passed away before the future of Kashmir could be decided by the people of Kashmir in a free and impartial plebiscite under the auspices of the United Nations. Upon his death, there was great gloom in Jammu and Kashmir, where people wept bitterly and said that Kashmiris had become orphans with the death of this great leader of the subcontinent.

Kashmiri struggle was essentially based on two-nation theory. In this regard, Kashmiris have always taken into consideration the rights of the non-Muslim and minorities of Kashmir. Throughout its history, the pundits and other minorities have lived peacefully in Kashmir and have been holding high posts in the administration. The APHC, which is leading the people of Kashmir, while following the principles of Quaid, opened its doors for the assimilation of the non-Muslims too. From the aspects of geo-strategy and geo-economics, the State of Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan are interlinked. Pakistan is such a state whose principal economy is agrarian based. This agrarian based economy needs a constant availability of water. Traditionally, the water catchment areas (water heads) are located somewhere in the mountainous region of the state of Jammu and Kashmir or passing through it. For centuries, water flows down to irrigate the agricultural lands of Punjab, Sindh and other parts of the Indus Valley and the locals as well as the people of Kashmir consumed its product, the food grains.

Indeed, there existed a historical mutuality between the Kashmir and the areas forming part of Pakistan. This relationship of interdependence is pre-partition of the sub-continent and even pre-canal system, hence everlasting in nature. It was indeed, in the same context that six decades earlier, on the eve of independence of Pakistan, the father of the nation, Quaid-i-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah through his visionary statement declared Kashmir as the “jugular vein of Pakistan,” and no nation can survive for a long with its jugular vein under the swords of another nation.

Fighting the Pakhtuns

Ahmed Quraishi

There is a very simple question that every Pakistani government official needs to ask the Americans: If you fail to pacify the Pakhtuns in Afghanistan, is it Pakistan’s responsibility to sever historical ties and wage war against them?

This is the mother of all questions because it deals with the issue of some, not all, of the Afghan Taliban using Pakistani territory to attack occupation armies in their country. Apparently this is the excuse the United States is using to expand its failed Afghan war into Pakistan. US officials say Pakistanis are unable to exercise sovereignty over their own territory. Then some here inside Pakistan – in politics and the media – use this argument to ask another question: isn’t Al-Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban violating Pakistani sovereignty by using our border-pockets as hideouts away from action inside Afghanistan? This argument is used to justify US violations of the Pak-Afghan international border. If the Afghan Taliban can do it, why not the US military? So the justification goes.

Pakistan still has time to come out strongly with two arguments at policy level. One, there is no way of completely stopping Pakistani Pakhtuns, who are an integral part of the Pakistani nation, from sympathising with the Pakhtuns in Afghanistan. And two, the US must solve the ‘Pakhtun problem’ inside Afghanistan. The solution is not by starting a war between the Pakistani military – manned in substantial part by the Pakhtuns – and Pakistani Pakhtun tribes or some of the Afghan Taliban, like the so-called Haqqani network. This will not fix the toy the Americans broke in Afghanistan.

In other words: what is it the US is doing wrong in Afghanistan to spur Pashtun and Taliban resistance, including pushing some of them inside Pakistan? And should Pakistan respond by killing these Pakhtuns because the US says so?

There are two more strong arguments that can strengthen a Pakistani policy review, which is overdue nine years into a failed war.

One is the fact that the Pakhtun and Taliban resistance against occupation in Afghanistan is not a function of the Pakistani tribal areas. The US military dare not claim that Pakistan’s devastated tribal belt is alone responsible for the rout facing US, NATO and ISAF forces across Afghanistan. But this is what the Americans imply when they shift the world focus to Pakistan without anyone from the Pakistani side disputing this twisted American logic.

And the second argument has to do with Al-Qaeda. Pakistan needs to dispute American claims about the quality and strength of Al-Qaeda presence in the Pakistani tribal belt. London’s International Institute of Strategic Studies is not exactly a den of antiwar activism. In a report last month, the think-tank questioned the US-policy line that Al-Qaeda can muster attacks anywhere outside Afghanistan or Pakistan.

If anything, we are seeing a US-occupied Afghanistan becoming a magnet for unknown terrorists from multiple backgrounds and questionable loyalties using Afghan soil to enter our tribal belt, as in the case of the Germans involved in the alleged Mumbai-style Europe-terror plot. Washington is conveniently using these conspiracy theories to expand its war onto Pakistani territory without any credible evidence.

Pakistan does not have a quarrel with the Afghan Pakhtuns or the Afghan Taliban. The latest US reports and assertions that Pakistan’s spy agencies maintain contacts with either are ridiculous. Islamabad must maintain those contacts. In fact, we must expand contacts with the Afghan Taliban in view of the double game the United States played with us in Afghanistan over the last eight years, where it turned Kabul into an Anti-Pakistan Central and deliberately expanded and continues to encourage Indian presence on our western borders.

The American duplicity extends to peace talks. Washington wants us to enter into a war with Afghanistan’s Pakhtuns while it secretly establishes contacts and tries to win them over behind Pakistan’s back. The same argument extends to the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Kashmiri groups. Islamabad can’t shower bombs upon Kashmiris who decide to become part of LeT or support their kin resisting Indian atrocities in Kashmir. The solution there too is for India to resolve its own problems. Its festering occupation in Kashmir, like the festering American occupation in Afghanistan, is breeding a two-way violence that first and foremost de-stabilises Pakistan. Our answer can’t be to send troops to crack down on Pakhtuns and Kashmiris. others need to answer for their actions that are destabilising Pakistan and the region.

Pakistan tense for Eid-ul-Fitr

Ghalib Sultan

Even after Islamic militants offered no respite to the people and law-enforcement agencies in the holy month of Ramazan, the entire Pakistani nation feels as if it is on the brink of a precipice, and the peace and sanctity of Eid-ul-Fitr might be compromised for a number of reasons.

Terror Strikes Pakistan During Ramazan

In the past week, terrorists have struck different urban targets throughout Pakistan; the procession in Lahore, the al-Quds rally in Quetta, and firing at a procession in Karachi. Normally, the month of Ramazan is solemnly observed by all Muslims, and represents a simmering-down of various ethnic, provincial and other divides between Pakistan’s Muslims. However, in a blatant attempt to incite sectarian violence and to enhance the level of insecurity for the average Pakistani, such religious and political processions have been deliberately targeted, and the existing divisions between the religious minorities (Christians, Hindus, even Ahmadis) and the majority population, as well as within the majority constituents of the population (Shi’as and Sunnis), have been exacerbated.

The month of Ramazan usually brings the virtues of patience, tolerance and sacrifice, but in the state-enforced Ramazan witnessed in Pakistan for the last few years, there are only differences in timings, and a complete ban on public eating and/or drinking – the police feel themselves to be armed with legal ammunition as they stop and question people who are eating, drinking, and even smoking. This, surprisingly, comes to them as an additional duty to the maintenance of security, law and order, and manning of checkposts to ensure that terrorists do not enter populated city areas. However, tempers run low, and everyone rushes towards the mosques and the food stalls as soon as the evening twilight approaches and the Maghrib prayer is sounded. Another day, another Roza. Ramazan has ceased to be an opportunity to be closer to Allah, and to witness the true reality of Islam without degenerations and modifications that we have found throughout history; yet, it has become a ritual, a festival, and procedure, and a cyclical occurrence.

While hunger makes one disoriented, the specter of terrorism makes one nervous and afraid. In Pakistan, the terrorists have successfully highlighted each and every internal quarrel that has (formerly had) the capacity to create bitter divisions throughout a community, or a city, or even the country. Add to that today’s electronic mass media that is concerned only with viewership (even though there is no calculation or framework to credibly ascertain which TV channel gets how many viewers at which time) and we see an increasingly disturbed (if not an increasingly aware) population that either effects negative change, or is effected by negative change.

After these attacks, one wonders whether Eid-ul-Fitr will be a moment of respite and joy, or whether it will come laden with security checks and paranoia, and the coup-de-grace terrorist attack on the holy day? Surely, making the population feel vulnerable in the last days of Ramazan is bound to give credence to such worries. Contextualize this with the possibility that Eid-ul-Fitr might coincide with September 11, 2010 (and the 9/11 attack anniversary) and what you have is a local bomb waiting to explode globally. Discrimination against Muslims in the United States – from opposition to mosques and religious centers to the burning of the Quran – only make moderate Muslims more radical, and make radical Muslims and extremist conservatives believe that their War of Terror against the modern world at large (whether non-Muslim or moderate Muslim; both are wajib-ul-qatl or worthy of death) is justified. In fact, it allows Islamic extremists to pursue a War of Terror in response to America’s War on Terror, and perhaps this aspect should be studied by the top minds of the Pentagon.

Why Now? The Taliban’s Game Plan

So far, the terrorists have not only picked on Pakistan’s religious minorities – they have increased the threat level against state installations and against urban centers generally. It is believed that after Ramazan, the TTP and Al-Qaeda wish to ratchet up the pressure on Pakistan and its Army, especially in terms of consolidating whatever was “spread out” in the midst of the South Waziristan operation. Calculated high-profile strikes against mid-to-high value targets in urban areas is their new modus operandi. This is how a strike in Karachi and Lahore on the same day, followed by one in Quetta on the next day, makes sense. Peshawar, the capital of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, is said to be a special target for the TTP and Al-Qaida, since terrorist operations in Punjab are to be handled by a coterie of former LeJ, LeT and JeM operatives (under the loose umbrella of “Lashkar-e-Jhangvi-al-Alami”). Karachi’s destabilization is a matter for the Pakhtuns and Mohajirs themselves, so Al-Qaeda and its local operators need little to no catalyst for igniting that tinder box. While there is widespread blame of political support and administrative patronage of criminals, miscreants and terrorists in Karachi, these kinds of linkages must be acutely investigated and should be intensified when it comes to religious extremists, radical figures, former Afghan jihad veterans, and anti-state elements.

Rawalpindi and Islamabad, the garrison city and the capital city, are in the crosshairs of the “Ghazi Force”, the offspring of the Lal Masjid’s burqa brigades and bearded brigands. They were also blamed for targeting serving military officers as they were travelling between Islamabad and Rawalpindi; Ghazi Force has a few high-profile assassinations and operations under its belt, like the GHQ siege, and assassinating 3 high-level military officers within a span of two weeks (October 2009).
What is the point of all this exercise? Conspiracy theorists and blind patriots will say “all of Pakistan’s problems come from outside”. But in the case of terrorism, and the New Great Game being played in South Asia, the causes and consequences are clearer once a regional perspective – as opposed to a nation-state perspective – is adopted.

Something’s Cooking in Afghanistan

The US, after dismissing Gen McChrystal and appointing Gen Petraeus, has fulfilled one promise to its people (bringing back troops from Iraq) while it is urgently waiting for the ground situation in Afghanistan to allow an honorable withdrawal from this unconquerable South Asian country as well. However, unlike Iraq, the US will not be able to install a contractor-based private security industry in Afghanistan, as President Karzai said on 16th August 2010 that he would ban private security contractors and offer private Afghan security workers to join the police. While a private-contractor-army twice the size of US troop deployment (at its zenith) in Iraq can maintain a semblance (or a very specific definition) of security, it only ensures that security becomes a commodity that can be bought or sold, and not a right that is to be exercised by everyone. The global hue and cry against Blackwater/Xe Services is essentially about the basic human right of security, and the indignation of an insecure Muslim at the hands of a redneck American who is unfit to serve an institution where laws of war and rules of combat are sacrosanct. Hence, when the US starts pulling out its troops from Afghanistan in July 2011, the Taliban will already have commenced their offensive against US/NATO/ISAF/Karzai.

Experts expect the Taliban to either commence – or announce and commence – their offensive in the winter, when combat operations by guerilla teams becomes more easier for the Afghans, while the technology-laden US/NATO/ISAF troops find it logistically difficult to operate against the Taliban in the harsh tribal winter. This gives the Taliban almost 6 months to ratchet up pressure on the Afghan governing dispensation – as well as their foreign backers – to acknowledge the Taliban as equal partners in the future of Afghanistan. Otherwise, the Taliban movement will continue as an antagonistic, anti-incumbent and even anti-state movement that has no use for modernity or for critical social progress made after the dark ages. The same happened in the midst of the Soviet withdrawal; the mujahedin and their infighting gave way to a more “populist” alternative, since the Afghan people thought “whatever or whoever the Taliban are, they must surely be better than the Afghan warlords who call themselves ‘mujahids’ and rule us like tyrants and despots”. It is true that Mullah Omar led an armed mob from his mosque to a local warlord’s den to exact revenge for the rape and murder of two children; this is how the Taliban rose to power on a platform of social justice.

While Pakistan desperately requires social justice – the kind that deals with corruption while affording governance and due process, the kind that provides and guarantees rights and doesn’t limit or withdraw them – it is exactly the process of Taliban social justice that Pakistan (and its civilian government and armed forces) wish to avoid. The Taliban carefully decapitate civil and military law enforcement agents, and then occupy the role of “lawgivers” themselves; beheading, lashing and fining people as and when they please, as and when they wish to quote religious or theological references or not. This has become a Pakistan where the government has little international credibility even when calling for flood aid, where national heroes and sportsmen are vilified in international settings for cheating, lying and fraud, where people are called corrupt and inhumane after showing little reaction to the continued policies of an inept government and the lynching of two young (and as the inquiry commission has proved, innocent) Pakistani boys by a mob in Sialkot. Now, this is the most worrisome part; one part of common discourse says that we need immediate justice (whether through the Taliban or through any other means) while the other says that Pakistan is already a Talibanized society (one Indian TV channel repeatedly ran clips of the Sialkot mob lynching, calling it “the Taliban face of the Pakistani people”) and that they don’t deserve to be treated as modern citizens of the international community, much less be eligible for aid and support in times of disasters. It is no secret that 76% of Frenchmen polled by the Le Figaro did not show solidarity with ordinary Pakistanis because of the catastrophic floods.

Saving and Rescuing Pakistan

The Taliban have commenced their all-out war against Pakistan as well. This war against Pakistan will not only challenge our existant wounds that have failed to heal and congeal over decades, but will also challenge our peace of mind and our psychological sanity, even remove any and every definition of “security” that we have devised for ourselves – or continue to devise on a daily basis. The Taliban’s war in Pakistan is a prelude, a staging point if you will, for their “War Against the Occupier Infidel” in Afghanistan. While the Taliban want to revisit the glory days of the Soviet withdrawal, they are not only concerned with defeating a superpower this time, but also its regional ally must suffer. If the US withdraws (unexpectedly or in a phased manner) then Pakistan will have the most to deal with, because President Karzai’s Afghan dispensation will be “wrapped up” courtesy the absence of any strategic security institution in Afghanistan. It is even said that President Karzai might even be on one of the planes taking US assets away from Afghanistan, should the time come. Of course, nobody can desire to revisit Mohammad Najibullah’s fate, no matter how deserving one is of it – whether it is President Karzai or President Zardari.

Law and justice are the only two things that can ensure security. A gun only makes you secure as long as you fire the last shot, otherwise the battle becomes a free-for-all. Laws and rules ensure that everyone is aware, if not informed, and justice is a buzzword used ever-so-often without realizing that it is the only mechanism of equating, balancing, rationalizing and resolving differences in rights and human identity. A social compact inspired by the basic principles of law and justice, and conforming to the dynamic social needs of the people (of Pakistan, or of Afghanistan, or of South Asia, or even of the Muslim Ummah) can resolve the issues that lead to “terrorism” in the first place. Pacifying Muslims without alleviating the oppression of Muslims is indubitably difficult, but this is the only way to avoid a mutual confrontation between the Muslim Orient and paranoid Occident.

Concluding note: The extent of Pakistan’s sociopolitical tension – whether due to security, economy, or governance – can be measured by a cryptic SMS that is doing the rounds lately. In the usual mess of English, it read that a baby had been born at Nishtar Hospital in Multan, and being born the baby laughed for an hour, said “watch and see what happens on the 27th of Ramazan” and then died. People have come up with different explanations, and even more multiplicitous reactions, but the religious fervor (and imposition of more tension and scary thoughts in one’s mind) behind such SMSes during the month of Ramazan is surely misguided. One would do better if one would donate money to the flood relief effort by SMS.

Thousands mourn servicemen killed in Afghanistan

WOOTTON BASSETT – Thousands of mourners lined the streets of a Wootton Bassett Tuesday to pay their final respects to seven servicemen killed in Afghanistan, as their bodies were brought home.

Funeral convoy in Wootton Bassett

Families of the men wept as hearses draped with the Union Jack flag passed through Wootton Bassett, after being repatriated to a nearby airbase, RAF Lyneham.

The sight of dead servicemen passing through the small town has become frequent as the British death toll in the Afghan conflict mounts.

But seven bodies being brought back at the same time is rare and left many overcome with emotion.

“I’m here to pay respects to these young lads. We don’t have to do it, but we want to do it,” said Bill Baldam, 63, who served with the RAF fire service for 12 years.

“It could be my son, it could be my brother.”

He said he had been to many repatriations, adding: “When the mothers turn up with the children it hits you in the stomach.”

Relatives placed flowers on top of the hearses as they paused for a minute’s silence next to the town’s war memorial. The quiet was broken only by the sound of weeping and church bells ringing.

The bodies of British servicemen killed in Afghanistan are repatriated to RAF Lyneham — a major air hub for the forces’ Afghan war effort — and are then driven through Wootton Bassett in hearses.

The grim and emotionally charged ceremonies have transformed the small town into a focal point for the nation’s mourning.

Four of the soldiers brought back Tuesday — Lance Corporal David Ramsden, Colour Sergeant Martyn Horton, Private Alex Isaac and Private Douglas Halliday — were killed on June 23 in southern Helmand province when their vehicle rolled into a waterway.

They had been part of a police advisory team travelling to attend an incident at a checkpoint.

Sergeant Steven Darbyshire was killed in a firefight with insurgents in the Sangin district of Helmand on June 23. Lance Corporal Michael Taylor was killed in a firefight in Helmand in June 22.

Marine Paul Warren was fatally injured in an explosion during an insurgent attack on June 21.

Britain has around 9,500 servicemen in Afghanistan and is the second biggest contributor of troops to international forces after the United States. Most British soldiers are stationed in Helmand.

A total of 309 British servicemen have been killed in Afghanistan since operations began there in 2001.

Britain’s military death toll in the country rocketed last year to 108, according to a tally from independent website iCasualties.org. Twenty servicemen have so far been killed this month,

NATO death toll hits 202 in Afghanistan this year

By Karim Talbi

KABUL – The deaths of 202 NATO soldiers in 2010 marked the deadliest January to mid-May in the nearly nine-year Afghan war, as the Taliban fight escalates and the West pours thousands more troops into battle.

A French soldier of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) patrols the streets of Kabul in September 2004. The deaths of 202 NATO soldiers in 2010 marked the deadliest January to mid-May in the nearly nine-year Afghan war, as the Taliban fight escalates and the West pours thousands more troops into battle.

The grim milestone was recorded in an AFP tally based on the independent icasualties.org website, after four NATO soldiers were killed on Monday.

Two Italians were killed in northwestern Afghanistan by a roadside bomb, the weapon of choice of Taliban-led insurgents fighting the Western-backed government and around 130,000 US-led foreign troops in the country.

Two other soldiers, whose nationalities were not released, died in similar attacks in western and southern Afghanistan, the military said.

Italy is currently the fifth largest contributor of troops to the NATO force in Afghanistan, with 3,300 troops in the International Security Assistance Force, and heads the western regional command headquartered in Herat.

From January to end-May 2009, 119 NATO soldiers died in Afghanistan. Overall 520 NATO died in 2009, the deadliest year so far for US-led foreign troops since the 2001 US-led invasion brought down the Taliban regime.

Since summer 2009, one or two NATO soldiers have died on average each day. The United States and its NATO allies are increasing to 150,000 their military deployment in Afghanistan. About two thirds of the troops are American.

The United States believes the “surge” of troops can wrest the initiative from the Taliban in key population centres and allow American forces to start withdrawing from the unpopular and costly conflict next year.

Commanders have long warned that an influx of new troops would lead to an increase in military fatalities, particularly when the fighting season peaks during the warmer summer months.

The first major US-led offensive of the new strategy encountered stiff resistance in Marjah, part of the poppy-growing belt of southern province Helmand, and its achievements have been questioned in the US press.

According to a poll carried out by London-based think tank, the International Council on Security and Development, 61 percent of Afghans feel more negative about NATO forces than before the Marjah offensive.

Three suicide bombers launched a coordinated assault on a police headquarters in Kandahar overnight, damaging the compound and sparking a gun battle, Afghan police said.

The attack underscored the growing threat posed by the Taliban in Kandahar, their spiritual home and regarded as the country’s most important battleground.

The compound had most of its windows broken and was littered with bullets, blood and the suicide attackers’ body parts, an AFP reporter said.

The Taliban, spokesman Yousuf Ahmadi said, claimed responsibility for the attack.

The Afghan interior ministry said three policemen were wounded.

Taliban-led militants have stepped up coordinated gun and suicide bomb assaults on the government as their insurgency gathers pace.

In eastern Afghanistan, another Taliban stronghold, militants ambushed and killed a pro-government cleric along with his brother and his driver in Kunar province, officials said.

Rehman Gul was a former anti-Soviet resistance commander and prominent tribal elder in the district of Chapa Dara.

He played a mediator’s role in tribal disputes in the district and was respected by the community, provincial police chief Khalilullah Ziyayee said.

Speaking to AFP, Ziyayee blamed Sunday’s attack on “enemies of Afghanistan,” a term often used to refer to Taliban insurgents.

Three explosions in southern Afghanistan on Sunday killed eight civilians including three children and two policemen, the interior ministry said.

28 die in NWA drone attack

By Malik Mumtaz & Mushtaq Yusufzai

MIRAMSHAH/PESHAWAR: The US spy planes on Tuesday launched the biggest missile attack in North Waziristan tribal region and killed 28 suspected militants and villagers in the wake of heightening tension in the Pak-US relations over Faisal Shahzad’s alleged involvement in the botched New York car bombing.

Official sources in Miramshah, the principal town of North Waziristan, said the unmanned US spy planes fired the biggest number of missiles at a time against a single target.

“It’s terrible. They intend to intensify the drone attacks as the number of planes hovering over the area has gone up dramatically,” remarked an official in Miramshah, who declined to be named.

The official and tribal sources said 13 people, including villagers and militants, were killed in the first round of missile strikes in the Doga area in Dattakhel subdivision while 15 others, believed to be militants, were killed in the second hit on a house in the Gorweek area.

According to sources, nine drones took part in the coordinated missile strikes in the mountainous Doga area in Dattakhel subdivision, located near the border with the Urgoon area of Afghanistan’s Paktika province.

The area, which is about 65-70 kilometres west of Miramshah, is the hometown of MNA from North Waziristan Kamran Khan. Pakistan has deployed one Army brigade in this area. According to sources, the drones first started firing missiles at a speedy car travelling towards Doga from the border area of Afghanistan. Three people, suspected to be the militants, were killed and two others injured in the strike .

Later, the drones started targeting suspected hideouts of the militants affiliated with North Waziristan Taliban leader Hafiz Gul Bahadur and his deputy Maulvi Sadiq Noor. Security officials said some of the missiles hit tented hideouts of the militants which they had temporarily established in mountains.

Besides local militants, officials said, foreign fighters were also killed in the series of missile strikes. Tribesmen said they saw nine bodies of the local militants being shifted to their native villages near Miramshah for burial. The sources close to the Taliban said there was no prominent figure among the victims.

An official of the paramilitary Frontier Corps (FC) on condition of anonymity said death toll might rise as some of the missiles struck houses of local tribesmen in the village. He said five tribesmen injured in the attack in Doga were brought to the Agency Headquarters Hospital in Miramshah and three others were rushed to Peshawar.

Later, the drones fired three more missiles and struck the hideout of Maulvi Sadiq Noor in the Gorweek area of Dattakhel tehsil. The official sources said 15 militants were killed and four others injured, while militants claimed only 10 of their men had been killed in the attack.

The government officials said it was the 31st missile attack by the US spy planes in North Waziristan since the beginning of this year and 13th on Dattakhel, stronghold of Hafiz Gul Bahadur-led militants.

They said over 500 people, including militants and local tribesmen, had lost their lives in these missile strikes and several others were maimed for life. Meanwhile, tension prevailed in the militancy-stricken North Waziristan with tribesmen fearing a likely military operation after a strong-worded threat to Pakistan by the US following the arrest of Faisal Shahzad.

The peace committee, headed by prominent cleric Maulana Gul Ramazan, has been trying to bring together the government and the Hafiz Gul Bahadur-led Taliban. But the committee members have not been able to overcome the differences between the government and the Taliban after the May 11 attack on a military convoy near Khattay Killay in which nine soldiers were killed and 16 others were injured.

Since then the military authorities have been facing problems in taking troops form one area to another for security reasons. The militants had threatened to attack the troops if they came out of their camps in Miramshah, Mir Ali and Dattakhel. The militants said that they had imposed their own curfew of their own and would not allow the troops to move in the area during the curfew hours.

Roots of Taliban conflict fester in Pakistan’s Swat

MINGORA, A year after Pakistan launched a major operation to evict the Taliban from Swat Valley, markets are bustling and girls are back at school, but the root causes of the conflict still fester.

For two years the Taliban paralysed much of the valley by promoting a repressive brand of Islamic law, opposing secular girls’ education and beheading opponents until the government ordered in thousands of troops.

At only 125 kilometres (80 miles) northwest of Islamabad, its mountains were once a weekend getaway and ski resort.

As the offensive began, around two million people fled the district but a year later many are back, trying to rebuild their lives.

“Normalcy has returned… All segments of society are open and functioning,” said Qazi Jamil, the new chief of 15,000 police serving three million people in the wider Malakand region, which includes Swat.

Girls in white headscarves walk to school, laden with books. Markets are cluttered with chickens, oranges and vegetables. Shutters are painted with the green and white Pakistani flag to signal opposition to the Taliban.

But threats and tensions remain. On February 22, the same day Jamil arrived to take up his new job, a suicide bomber killed nine people.

“The element of threat is still there unfortunately,” said Jamil. “There are so many different small groups, alleys and streets it’s extremely difficult to plug each and every loop. They are trying to sneak in.”

Keen to address the causes of the insurgency, the civil administration wants international donors to accelerate reconstruction and rehabilitation, and for police to take over from the army as quickly as possible.

“There is a need for a new social contract between the haves and the have-nots. There is a new friction on the rise,” said Naseem Akhtar, a senior official in the civil administration.

Without adequate services and reconstruction, the roots of what he calls the Taliban’s “class war” — a product of Pakistan’s feudal system, the huge disparity in wealth between the landowners and peasants — will continue to grow.

“We have a Herculean task of reconstruction and rehabilitation,” said Akhtar.

Police need to be recruited and trained. Jobs need to be created. Conditions need to be made conducive to business. Out of 1,576 schools in Swat, the United Nations says 175 were destroyed and 226 damaged.

“Right now the donors’ response is poor. The international community should concentrate on providing funds,” Akhtar told AFP.

Under army supervision, schools are being repaired but none of those razed has been rebuilt, officials said.

Akhtar’s former school, Government High School 1, is a lunar scape of rubble bulldozed by the army with 10 tent classrooms offering boys an education that would enable them to work as clerks and businessmen.

Caretaker Saif-ur-Rehman says he no longer sleeps on the premises at night, despite his faith in the army, because he is too frightened after the night the militants came, blowing up the building and pointing a gun at his head.

“There are still some rumours that the Taliban might come and again capture the entire area,” he said.

Robert Wilson, USAID director in Pakistan, said the agency had set aside 36 million dollars for Swat, including 25 million to rebuild around 50 schools but conceded that not a single school had yet been fully rebuilt.

The perception that the displaced had already returned, plus earthquakes in Chile and Haiti, means less donor money is available, said Caitlin Brady, chairwoman of the Pakistan Humanitarian Forum, a group of 35 leading international aid organisations.

“There are still 1.3 million people displaced (in the northwest) and people who have gone home still need assistance. We’re concerned that Pakistan is becoming a forgotten crisis,” said Brady.

The Central Hospital Saidu Sharif lacks equipment, specialised surgical staff, beds, updated X-ray and CT scanners, ventilators and a defibrillator.

“I was expecting so much, but so far it (the response) has not been very encouraging and there has not been much contribution as far as this hospital is concerned,” said Dr Lal Noor Afridi.

A few victims of the February attack are still on the surgical ward, like rickshaw driver Obeidullah who unwittingly drove himself and three passengers into the path of the suicide bomber, and is now looking for a new life.

“It was a warning to leave the rickshaw thing. I want no more risk,” said the 35-year-old, bandages layered over his chest.