The Afridi Conviction

By Ghalib Sultan
ZoneAsia-Pk

An Assistant Political Agent in FATA has sentenced Dr Afridi to 33 years in prison and a fine under the Frontier Crimes Regulations for collaborating with the US CIA in the process that led to the unilateral US action to kill Osama bin Laden in Pakistan. Dr Afridi is a Pakistan national domiciled in FATA though his CIA directed activities were carried out in the town of Abbottabad that is not in FATA. Pakistan must have made sure that his trial under the FCR was legally correct because of his domicile status. According to media reports Dr Afridi’s wife is a US national and if true then that may have given the CIA a coercive advantage if any was needed—material gain was definitely involved.

The US by publicly defending and championing the cause of Dr Afridi has established beyond all doubt that Dr Afridi, a Pakistan government employee, was subverted and recruited to work for the CIA. What the US has not explained is why Dr Afridi was left to face the music and why he and his family were not taken out especially when his role was sure to be discovered. The US had abandoned Cuban collaborators after the Bay of Pigs fiasco in the Kennedy era. South Vietnamese collaborators were also abandoned to a horrific fate and now the Afghans are bracing for what awaits them. Angry US law makers have now woken up and demanded that Afridi be released as he has done nothing wrong. He hasn’t under US law but can Pakistan ignore the fact that a Pakistani government official collaborated with a fToreign intelligence agency in a clandestine manner? Not if they do not want to set a precedent for others. Dr Afridi under US direction also recruited other government employees to work with him and by using a vaccination campaign as a cover discredited the government’s health care programs. US law makers have proposed a cut of US$ 33mn—one for each year of Dr Afridi’s prison term—to be deducted from the aid to Pakistan and perhaps paid to Dr Afridi as compensation. This cut comes after a proposal to cut all aid to Pakistan by half for the continued closure of the NATO logistics route. The gloves are off and the strategy is to brow beat Pakistan into compliance. Pakistan, and Dr Afridi, are learning what collaboration with the US really means.

US lawmakers are calling Pakistan an extortionist because it has demanded adequate payment for damage to its infrastructure. Pakistan has been called a schizophrenic ally—living in Alice’s wonderland and one has speculated that if this is Pakistan’s idea of cooperation then what would its opposition look like? You do not want to go down that route not with the present situation in Pakistan. Many in the US are also questioning the timing of Dr Afridi’s conviction and asking who is orchestrating policy in Pakistan. Some media anchors, analysts and writers are answering the question exactly as the US wants it answered. Pakistanis are now realizing the full implications of the change in the US’ strategic direction in South Asia away from Pakistan and decisively towards India. If the down slide in US Pakistan relations is not arrested then Pakistan’s response options will be severely restricted and the US would have effectively destabilized another country and region with disastrous consequences. The Afghans are not the only ones bracing for a catastrophe.

PLANTING DOUBTS

By GHALIB SULTAN

STRATFOR seems to have departed from its policy of objective and unbiased reports. In its January 11 report on the Khost bombing the author (probably an Indian origin Canadian judging from his coordinates at the end of the report) has tried to link the Pakistani intelligence agency-the ISI-to the Khost attack that killed 7 US intelligence operatives at their forward base in Afghanistan.

In a cleverly worded report the author quotes ‘widespread reports’ and ‘speculation is rife’ as a basis for ISI or state involvement in the attack. Having planted this seed he cunningly adds disarming statements like ‘no reason for ISI or Pakistan’ to launch such an attack. Unbelievably he states that ‘analysis of explosive residue suggesting military grade equipment points to ISI involvement’. Again he cleverly adds that such explosives have been used in other attacks as if to absolve him of any bias. If the ISI is to be credited with such capacity then give it the sense to not use anything as incriminating as ‘military grade equipment’!

The report goes on to hint at jihadists within the lower ranks of the ISI—the tired old mantra of rogue elements operating on their own. He then comes to his real aim when he states that even if none of this is true the very idea is enough to damage US-Pakistan relations. This is the seed that was to be planted-the rest is hogwash. A superficial analysis, no sources quoted and a fantasy built up to conjure a scenario come on STRATFOR you don’t need this guy!

Fortunately an earlier STRATFOR report on the same incident was much more objective and clearly gave out that Al-Balawi was a Jordanian and a CIA double agent and that he was launched to penetrate the TTP (Tehrik Taliban Pakistan) and that he turned on his masters. These are irrefutable facts. Al Balawi did not need the ISI or the TTP to get into the base in Afghanistan. The TTP has gained in stature and has demonstrated its capacity through a spectacular incident—thanks to those who used and launched Al Balawi.

Blackwater’s Black Shadow

by GHALIB SULTAN
First Published on: Sep 29, 2009

Much water—most of it black—has flowed under the bridge ever since the Pakistani media started educating their viewers on the mercenary contractor Blackwater and its many clones. By now it is clear that the US relies on contractors like Haliburton, Blackwater, Xe International and others to provide ‘security’ and ‘training’ services that include intelligence, surveillance, target identification and illumination, use of weapons, explosives, extraction operations, subversion, sabotage and elimination of selected personnel. It is also clear that mercenaries of all nationalities are hired and ‘host’ country organizations and personnel are used to give an acceptable ‘face’ to the broad range of activities by these ‘specialists’. Most of this information has been culled from US sources where there is domestic concern stemming from ethical and financial concerns. There is confirmation of some stories by the media like hiring of hundreds of houses in Islamabad and special security measures as well as involvement of local firms like Inter Risk that now stands exposed for illegal activities but there is no clear statement from the government backed by statistics and proof. Till that happens there will continue to be speculation based on misinformation.

If, as is being made out, there has been clandestine penetration of Pakistan and the departments responsible are silent for some reason then the question is being asked that — who will confront these elements and force them to leave? The answer is not hard to guess but the result will be chaos and that is leading to the next question that– is internal chaos the environment required to do what these people are in Pakistan to do? The fact that there is also confirmation of massive embassy and consulates’ expansion plans adds fuel to the speculation about motives and intentions. Again a factual report by the government would clear the air—in the absence of such a report questions will continue to be asked and debated in the media.

It is in this environment of hostility and suspicion that the conditions in the Kerry-Luger Bill are being debated. It is as if these conditions have been just discovered and this is because no preparatory work was done to explain the conditions—if that was at all possible. Now there are those who are attacking the bill and those who are defending it—the defense is half-hearted and lacks credibility. The requirement is that only the ministry concerned should put out reasoned factual information and not rely on shrill political voices to shout down critics. At stake is the future of the US-Pakistan relationship. India’s approval of the condition makes matters worse because the perception is that anything that India approves of is bound to be against Pakistan’s interests!

An unfortunate and totally unnecessary ‘us’ and ‘them’ grouping is being created. ‘Us’ being those in favor of the US interests in relation to Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, the war on terror, Islam and nuclear proliferation even at the cost of Pakistan’s sovereignty if US support and aid continues unabated. ‘Them’ being those who are ‘dragging their feet on relations with India’, hedging their options on the western border because of Indian inroads into Afghanistan and support of subversion in Baluchistan and an overall identification of Pakistan’s interests even if they are not in line with US interests. In an unstable and politically charged atmosphere and with increasing social pressures such a divide if not checked can have serious consequences especially if the major political groupings move towards confrontation forcing institutions like the judiciary and military and the religious lobby to choose sides. The need is for the government to take steps to gain credibility and focus on governance and for all to seriously move to establish political stability. This is not the time for infighting—this is the time to come together and be on the same page so that differences cannot be exploited to create divides. Pakistan is fortunate that today it has democracy, an elected government and institutions that are strengthening themselves and the country by focusing on their own jobs—it would be unfortunate if they are distracted in other directions.

Harpooning The Harpoon

by GHALIB SULTAN
First Published on: Aug 31, 2009

By a strange coincidence whenever there is going to be legislation on aid or arms sales to Pakistan the US media throws a spanner in the works. This is done by either dredging up the nuclear proliferation issue or coming up with something new. This time it is the idea that Pakistan has modified the US supplied HARPOON sea to sea missile for sea to land attack and has extended its range. Pakistan should be happy to note that it is credited with such technology innovation capabilities but unfortunately the US media is also sometimes a vehicle for indirectly disseminating US official thinking.

That is not all. The US is also the happy hunting ground for various lobbies and the one that has worked against Pakistan is the Israeli-American Jewish and the Indian lobby. India would be at the heart of any such endeavor. There is also the money factor that works so well in Washington DC with lobbyists all over the landscape.

Pakistan has denied the allegation. This had to be done as a routine response otherwise the report with no basis, no statistics and no credible sources was obviously little more than kite flying. There is no doubt that Pakistan now has indigenous advanced missile technology including cruise missiles. Pakistan’s nuclear capability that includes multiple delivery systems is its strategic deterrence response to the threat from a nuclear armed India that has significant conventional force superiority.

US military sales to Pakistan have inbuilt safeguards against transfers to a third country and modifications to supplied equipment. The US even carries out periodic inspections. This makes such loose statements counter productive and downright harmful for US-Pakistan relations. Pakistan’s track record with US supplied systems is impeccable.

The military sales relationship with the US does not restrict Pakistan from pursuing other sources for supplies and nor does it stop Pakistan from using its own capacity to develop new technologies.