The 2014 endgame

By Sabina Khan

US President George W Bush had said right after 9/11 that God had told him to invade Afghanistan. Ironically, this righteous claim sounds similar to the ones made by terrorists under the pretence of jihad. After ten years of war to install a democratic government and free the men and women in the conflict ridden country, what has actually been accomplished in Afghanistan? Is the world a safer place now that the US is preparing to withdraw their forces? Has terrorism been eradicated? As the 2014 troop withdrawal deadline nears, these questions deserve consideration.

In response to the 9/11 attacks, Bush called for an invasion of Afghanistan to destroy al Qaeda’s sanctuary. Long-term objectives of the effort comprised establishing a democracy and eliminating circumstances which led to terrorism. Being unable to convince the Taliban to hand over Osama bin Laden, the US strategy evolved to include killing and capturing their leaders, Mullah Omar being high on that list. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, the Taliban insurgency picked up and the death toll began to increase. Opium production flourished during this period as there were few other sources of income.

When US President Barack Obama took power in 2008, he shifted the focus back to Afghanistan and redefined the objectives. In 2009, he deployed an additional 30,000 troops and stated that his goal in Afghanistan was to “disrupt, dismantle and defeat al Qaeda”. In 2009, Defence Secretary Robert Gates stated that “at a minimum, the mission is to prevent the Taliban from retaking power… and turning Afghanistan potentially again into a haven for al Qaeda and other extremists”.

In his recent speech, Obama announced that 33,000 troops are being withdrawn by the summer of 2012 and that transition of power to Afghan security forces will be complete by 2014. Currently, Afghanistan’s newly-formed military consists of 150,000 soldiers but their ranks are scheduled to swell up to 260,000 in time for the 2014 deadline. Despite Nato’s efforts to train Afghan soldiers to read and write at the third grade level, almost 90 per cent of the recruits in the Afghan military are illiterate. High levels of desertion and infiltration also plague the Afghan security forces, which adds another aspect of uncertainty with the transition of power. Moreover, several insurgent groups remain firmly established in Kunar and Nuristan provinces, which border Pakistan’s tribal areas. Consequently, cross-border incidents have risen between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Several hundred militants crossed into Pakistan and conducted attacks in Upper Dir, Bajaur and Mohmand. In retaliation, Pakistan fired rockets on the border to target militants crossing over. Needless to say, relations between the two neighbours are troublesome.

This September marks ten years since the atrocious events of 9/11. Bin Laden is dead but al Qaeda remains very much alive. Conflict has spilled into Pakistan with death and destruction becoming a daily part of life. Meanwhile, the US has come full-circle and is now negotiating with the Taliban and preparing to allow them back into the official government. A recent and well-timed UN resolution draws distinction between al Qaeda and the Taliban. The pretext being that the Taliban only focus on conducting attacks in their own country unlike al Qaeda who carries out attacks worldwide. Thus, the Taliban have been removed from the UN sanctions list in order to help the US with their reconciliation efforts. These games do little to conceal the fact that the Afghan government is corrupt and poor. On top of that, their security forces can switch sides at any moment if enticed with money or threats. Despite the US government’s desire to keep Pakistan separate from their negotiations with the Taliban, it is time to face reality, the situation along the porous border remains and will continue to be a challenge for Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Hence, a comprehensive regional solution is required for long-term peace instead of a rushed secret backdoor deal which will certainly be short-lived. Our neighbour has been in a state of continuous conflict since the late 1970s. The ultimate resolution involves education and economic development, which entails long-term dedication and commitment from interested parties that are directly affected by the war in Afghanistan.

Defector admits ‘fabricating’ crucial Iraq WMD intel: report

LONDON: The defector whose claims that Iraq had biological weapons were used to justify the 2003 US invasion has admitted that he lied to help get rid of Saddam Hussein, the Guardian newspaper said Tuesday.

Iraq’s elected Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki speaks at a ceremony to mark the birth anniversary of Prophet Mohammed at Um al-Qura mosque in Baghdad February 15, 2011.

Rafid Ahmed Alwan al-Janabi, codenamed Curveball by German and American intelligence officials, told the BND, Germany’s secret service, that Iraq had mobile bio-weapons trucks and had built clandestine factories.

Even after he went back on his story after being confronted with denials from another source, his former boss, the BND continued to take him seriously, he told The Guardian.

The false information formed the cornerstone of former US secretary of state Colin Powell’s key address to the United Nations on February 5, 2003.
During the speech, Powell described Janabi as “an Iraqi chemical engineer” who “supervised one of these facilities.”

“He actually was present during biological agent production runs and was also at the site when an accident occurred in 1998,” Powell told the UN.

“Maybe I was right, maybe I was not right,” Janabi told the British newspaper.

“They gave me this chance. I had the chance to fabricate something to topple the regime. I and my sons are proud of that and we are proud that we were the reason to give Iraq the margin of democracy.

“I had to do something for my country, so I did this and I am satisfied because there is no dictator in Iraq any more,” he added.

The Iraq war resulted in more than 100,000 civilian deaths and destroyed the political reputations of the then US president George W. Bush, his defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld and their ally British prime minister Tony Blair.

Rumsfeld admitted in memoirs released last week that he “made a misstatement” when he claimed Hussein had weapons of mass destruction sites round Baghdad and Tikrit.
Janabi told The Guardian he was “shocked” by Powell’s speech, but played down his role in the conflict.

“Powell didn’t say I was the only reason for war, he talked about three things: Uranium, Al-Qaeda in Iraq and my story (biological weapons),” he said.

And he accused the BND of having broken an agreement that they would not hand over his information to other countries. A German official, named “Dr Paul,” approached Janabi in 2000 after identifying him as a Baghdad-trained chemical engineer with possible inside intelligence of former leader Hussein’s regime.

“He said it was very important, that Iraq had a dictator and I needed to help,” the defector told The Guardian.

Janabi, who fled Iraq in 1995, lied to the BND, telling them Hussein had acquired mobile bio-weapons trucks and built weapons factories.

Later however, the BND confronted Janabi with a statement from Bassil Latif, his former boss at the Military Industries Commission in Iraq, who said there were no trucks or factories.

Janabi told the BND: “OK, when (Latif says) there no trucks then (there are none),” according to the paper.

Despite his admission, Janabi said security officials continued to take his claims seriously.

They told him in 2002 that his pregnant wife might not be allowed to join him in Germany if he refused to cooperate.

But the defector denied that he had lied to the BND in order to secure asylum, claiming he did it purely to topple Hussein.

“I was granted asylum on March 13, 2000. The story…had nothing to do with my asylum claim,” Janabi told the paper during a meeting in Germany.

“I had a problem with the Saddam regime, I wanted to get rid of him. I tell you something when I hear anybody, not just in Iraq but in any war, (is) killed, I am very sad. But give me another solution. Can you give me another solution?”

“Believe me, there was no other way to bring about freedom to Iraq. There were no other possibilities,” he added.

Tyler Drumheller, the former CIA chief in Europe, said Janabi’s “fascinating” admissions “makes me feel better.”

“I think there are still a number of people who still thought there was something in that, even now,” Drumheller told The Guardian.